Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

883 
FZAK52 PAFG 282241
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-291345-
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ200-291345-
NORTON SOUND-
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-291345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-291345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-291345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
241 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/CC MAY 11

561 
FZAK52 PAFG 291040
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300145-
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. A TROUGH OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM POINT LAY OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ALASKA INTERIOR THROUGH SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. A 988 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE WEST.

$$

PKZ200-300145-
NORTON SOUND-
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
4 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ210-300145-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...OVER BERING STRAIT...N WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...NW WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS 9 FT IN BERING STRAIT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SEAS IN THE REST OF
THE AREA 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ215-300145-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-300145-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
240 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT.

$$

TF/DA MAY 11

144 
FZAK52 PAFG 292225
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-301330-
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS. A
TROUGH OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM POINT LAY OVER WRANGEL
ISLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ200-301330-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-301330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-301330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-301330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/CC MAY 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
539 AM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN NEARLY
IDENTICAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY OUT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA INTO SIBERIA WILL
HOLD PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE NORTH OF 70 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST OF ALASKA TO THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER SUNDAY EVENING.

THIS ARCTIC SHORT WAVE ALOFT DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL BRING
MUCH WEATHER TO THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IF AT ALL. THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN OCCLUSION OVER THE LAPTEV AND EAST
SIBERIAN SEAS...BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 130
TO 170 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THIS SYSTEM IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS BUT SO FAR HAS ONLY MADE A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF
THE ALASKAN ARCTIC SLOPE AND ARCTIC COASTAL WATERS.

A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE UP TO THE
YUKON DELTA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE MORNING ZONE FORECASTS INCLUDE SOME RAIN OVER THE
BERING SEA COAST STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE HIGH ALOFT OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE EASTERN ALASKA
INTERIOR...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE
UP THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TO REACH NUNIVAK
ISLAND ON TUESDAY...AND THEN THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE BERING SEA
COAST ZONES OF ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER
FORECAST MODELS PREDICT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST
BERING SEA STARTING MONDAY. BOTH FORECAST A SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO
MOVE UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
THIS THE MODELS DIVERGE. ONE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THIS IS
TYPHOON SONGDA...NOW NEAR 27 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 127
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THE ENERGY FROM SUCH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS
SOMETIMES UNDERESTIMATED. THE EXTRA TROPICAL REMAINS OF THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE REALM SOUTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE STARTING FRIDAY.

THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
OUT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. NEARLY ALL OF THE ENERGY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING DIRECTED WESTWARD. A FEW AREAS OF HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY.

LARGE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEA COASTS
SHOULD THIN AND LIFT LATE THIS MORNING...AS WAS THE GENERAL RULE
YESTERDAY. STRONG DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEA COASTAL ZONES AND THE BROOKS
RANGE AND INTERIOR ZONES. ON FRIDAY...ANAKTUVUK PASS REACHED 72
DEGREES AND DEADHORSE REACHED ONLY 39.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOON DATA FROM MCGRATH AND FAIRBANKS SHOW
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR IS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM FRIDAY. VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND UNSTABLE AIR EXTEND UP
TO ABOUT 14000 FEET. THE MORNING POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME LINGERING MIDDLE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR.
SO WHILE THE LOW AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION...THE MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE REST OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED. THE ALASKA LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM RECORDED ONLY 10
STRIKES FROM 6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE AND TO PROVIDE THE MAKINGS OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY WAS
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 15 PERCENT...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. HENCE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR ARE BEING CONTINUED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TO HOLD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD. NO WINDS OF 20 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED. LOW HUMIDITY IS THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FIRE
WEATHER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH MEANS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TODAY AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STAGES ON THE UPPER PORCUPINE RIVER HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING...AND THE STAGE OF THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON HAS
LEVELED OFF. SMALLER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST ALASKA...SUCH AS
IKOLUKROK CREEK AND THE WULIK RIVER...CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A
STRONG DIURNAL PATTERN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED BY SMALLER WATERSHEDS
DEPENDENT UPON SNOW MELT.

WHILE RIVERS IN MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA ARE FALLING...THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE...AS CAN BE SEEN ON SOME
OF THE WEB CAMERAS. FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ARE
HOLDING AROUND 9500 FEET. HENCE THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RISES ON THE
TANANA RIVER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ210.
&&

TF MAY 11