Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

743 
FZAK52 PAFG 081152
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-090300-
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 MB LOW 200 MILES NW OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL
ISLAND BY 4 PM MON WEAKENING TO 1010 MB. A 1004 MB LOW OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE ON SHORE OVER THE YUKON RIVER DELTA BY 
4 PM MON.

$$

PKZ200-090300-
NORTON SOUND-
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING
TO 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-090300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT...EXCEPT S WINDS 20 KT
OFF THE YUKON DELTA THIS MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-090300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-090300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
352 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

TF/DJH AUG 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1225 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CURRENT SURFACE AND
500 MB PROGS OUT THROUGH 00Z WED. A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
00Z WED. THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
CENTERS BY 00Z WED. BY 00Z THU...THE MAIN WESTERN CENTER WILL
RECEDE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SIBERIA WHILE THE EASTERN CENTER
MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD. GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE WELL
PLACING THE CENTER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE YAKUTAT AREA BY 00Z THU.
AS THE UPPER LOW SPLITS...MODERATELY STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY 00Z THU.
AT THE SURFACE...A MAINLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE BERING STRAIT AREA LATE TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH WED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN AKZ219
AND PROBABLY IN EXTREME WESTERN AKZ218.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...WITH THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING RAPIDLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOW UP BETWEEN THE LATEST
AVAILABLE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. UPPER RIDGING IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST AND/OR THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KOYUKUK RIVER AT HUGHES HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 2 FT BELOW
ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT INCLUDE 0.7
INCHES AT BETTLES AND GOBBLERS KNOB...AND 0.5 INCHES AT
COLDFOOT. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE A FURTHER RISE ON THE
LEVEL OF THE KOYUKUK RIVER...RAINFALL AND RIVER DATA IN
THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

RF AUG 11