Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. THERMAL TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH HIGH THETA E VALUES TO SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS. OVERALL...NORTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK TROUGH
ALOFT PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WEAK RIDING WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRI EXCEPT FOR THE COLD COLD FRONT
SWEEPING IN OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA ON THU BUT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY WITHOUT MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT AGAINST THE RIDGE.

THE COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO EEK EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MIGRATE TO WELL NORTH IN THE ARCTIC AND
PROVIDE REINFORCING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF ALASKA.

EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH TO NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THU A SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE
LEADING SURFACE MAY HAVE RESULTED FROM A THERMAL LOW OVER MAINLAND
FAR EAST RUSSIA. THE WINDS WILL COME UP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND NORTHWARD TO THE POINT HOPE AND CAPE LISBURNE AREA BEGINNING
THU AND REMAIN AT MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE MAIN AREA TO WATCH MIGHT BE THE NORTON SOUND AREA AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE FRI
EVENING WHICH MAY PUSH QUITE A BIT OF WATER INTO NORTON SOUND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTON SOUND AREA...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE FRI
EVENING...THIS MAY PUSH QUITE A BIT OF WATER INTO NORTON SOUND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF ALASKA ON THU...IT IS LIKELY THAT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
40 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE TANANA RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS WEEK WITH
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SALCHA TO DELTA JUNCTION ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF JUL 11