Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...WE EXPECT THE LOW OVER ZONE 213 TO JITTER AROUND A
BIT TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING ITS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON THIS...THOUGH OF COURSE THEY DIFFER IN
DETAIL. A POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND AT 4AM FRIDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE SURFACE LOW TROUGHS OUT OVER THE INTERIOR ON
FRIDAY AS THE LOW ALOFT CONTINUES EAST (OR NORTHEAST...OR
SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING WHAT MODEL YOU LIKE). MOST RUNS OF THE
MID-RANGE MODELS KEEP THE CENTER ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.

A SHORT WAVE OVER COOK INLET IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONE 226 EARLY THURSDAY...LIKELY
PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE RAIN TO THAT ZONE AND TO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY IN ZONE 224. LOOKS LIKE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE NABESNA AND CHISANA
RIVERS IN THE 36 HOURS ENDING 4AM FRIDAY. PROBABLY NOT THAT MUCH
AT NORTHWAY...AND EVEN LESS AT TOK.

THE MODELS GRADUALLY SHUT DOWN THE MOISTURE STREAM OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRANSIT
THE AREA...BUT THEY WILL HAVE LESS TO WORK WITH. LOW TOPPED
STRATUS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...AT
LEAST DIURNALLY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IF THE SHORT WAVE COMING IN TO ZONE 226 AND THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY IN ZONE 224 IS AS JUICY AS ADVERTISED...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER STAGES ON THE TANANA RIVER LATER THIS WEEK...BUT
PROBABLY NOTHING TOO SCARY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

DJH JUL 11