Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 AM AKDT MON JUL 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE AND 500 MB PROGS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER NRN AK OUT THROUGH 00Z FRI. DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTER NOW W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE NNE ON A WOBBLY TRACK TO BE NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT BY 00Z THU AND OVER THE WRN SEWARD PENINSULA BY
00Z FRI. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKENING
BY WED.

997 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR AMCHITKA AT 06Z MON WILL BECOME
CAPTURED BY THE BERING UPPER LOW...BY 12Z TUE...THE LOW
WILL BE JUST S OF THE GULF OF ANADYR...CENTRAL PRESSURE
AROUND 992 MB. WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING UP THE WEST COAST
AND INTO THE SW INTERIOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER
THE ENTIRE W COAST...CNTRL AND WRN INTERIOR...AND MOST
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT. RAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING
IN THE ERN INTERIOR W OF ARCTIC VILLAGE-BIG DELTA LINE
LATER MON NIGHT. RAIN OVER MOST INTERIOR AREAS TUE.

E TO NE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS. AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE
REASONABLY WELL FRI...THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY THEREAFTER.
YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BLEND OF THESE TWO AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS PROBABLY THE BEST CHOICE BEYOND FRI. UPPER LOW NEAR THE ERN
SEWARD PEN FRI EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR DRIFT A BIT EWD
WHILE FILLING...BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH PATTERN LIKELY OVER
MOST OF THE CWA BY SUN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEM AREAS...MOIST FLOW WITH RAIN WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS AND OVERCAST SKY COVER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN MAY PRODUCE GENERAL RISES ON MANY RIVERS. 36 HOUR
AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH MAY OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE...SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING PKZ210.

&&

RF JUL 11