Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

976 
FZAK51 PAFG 211013
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-220115-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A 1005 MB LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ225-220115-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ230-220115-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-220115-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ240-220115-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-220115-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

RF/CC MAY 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW TERRITORIES TO VICTORIA ISLAND
AND A COMPLEX LOW THAT COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM EASTERN RUSSIA AND
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURES ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURFACE...NORTH PAC LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  A MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AK RANGE
WILL BECOME DISLODGED TODAY AND MOVE TO THE NORTH AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT ALOFT MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK AND INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AK RANGE SAT PM.

INTERIOR...THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH
OF THE AK RANGE ALL WEEK WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE AK RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND
THERE IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ZONES 221
AND 225 WHERE THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS COLDER ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH RE-DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE AK RANGE SAT
PM. THERE MAYBE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
70S THIS WEEKEND AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
DOMINATE.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG SOME OF WHICH ARE DENSE WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.  THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP INCREASES TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FROM BARROW SOUTH TO THE
CAPE LISBURNE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST BY 12Z SAT. THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL IN LIQUID FORM AND NOT SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF BARROW. THE BARROW SOUNDING HAS A LARGE AREA OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OFF THE SURFACE THAT EXTENDS TO ABOUT 800
MILLIBARS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FREEZING RAIN IS
FAVORED OVER SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ZONE 201 FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9 AM
SAT.

WEST COAST...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH.  THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN ZONES
215-216-227 FOR THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE IT WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT
WITH A DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING
FOLLOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE WINDS LOOK TO BE SUB-ADVISORY FOR
THE MARINE AREAS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MARINE AREA 225
WHERE A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTH WIND IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW
MOVE NORTH OFF THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR ZONES 223 AND 226 FOR STRONG WINDS AND A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WIND IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 225 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE AK RANGE THERE MAYBE A
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR AREAS NEAR THE AK RANGE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY
FOR THE BUCKLAND RIVER AT BUCKLAND. NO NEW INFORMATION RECEIVED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATED THAT 1 TO 3 FEET OF WATER COVERS THE UPTOWN PART OF THE
VILLAGE. A PILOT REPORT FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INDICATED THAT THE
ICE JAM IS STILL IN PLACE ABOVE THE VILLAGE WHICH WOULD MEAN
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WHEN THE ICE
JAM RELEASES.

ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. THE TANANA
RIVER SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW RISES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS CAUSE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT...BUT
LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CB MAY 11