Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS AND THEN THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL PINWHEEL SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO NEAR THE NORTH POLE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO THE TROUGH ALOFT LYING ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE WHILE THE
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS FROM AROUND EAGLE THAT WILL STRETCH TO NEAR
WISEMAN THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TOUGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL THEN ASSUME A MORE EAST WEST POSITION BY WED AFTERNOON.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM ABOUT EAGLE TO ABOUT POINT
HOPE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF BANKS
ISLAND TO ABOUT FAIRBANKS WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA SOMEWHAT
STABLE. THE 500H WILL APPROACH 570 DM AND BEYOND WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
HAMPER CONVECTION AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE BERING SEA
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WEST ZONES.

AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA. HOWEVER...DRYING OF THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
BEGIN THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS CHANGE AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO DRY OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE AREA IN ZONES 222
AND 224 WILL EXPIRE EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CF JUL 11