Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

030 
FZAK52 PAFG 182209
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191315-
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH THU AM EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF ANADYR. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST WHILE A NEW TROUGH FORMS FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND
TO THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA FRI AM AND THEN DRIFTS WEST
THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ200-191315-
NORTON SOUND-
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-191315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-191315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
209 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

DA/JL MAY 11

644 
FZAK52 PAFG 191116
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-200230-
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT AND
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-200230-
NORTON SOUND-
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-200230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND SOUTHWEST...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT E WINDS 30 KT FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWEST. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-200230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-200230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
316 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
3 FT.
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

CB/DJH MAY 11

926 
FZAK52 PAFG 192213
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-201315-
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT AND
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-201315-
NORTON SOUND-
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.MON...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-201315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.  
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-201315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.  
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-201315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

DA/SAK
MAY 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
305 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION..AN UPPER RIDGE IN NW CANADA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY 00Z FRI STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL
EXTEND FROM NW CANADA AND INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST. A COMPLEX UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH. PREDICTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MUCH
LOWER WITH THE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH THAN WITH THE MORE PREDICTABLE
BUILDING RIDGE.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND NORTHERN CANADA WEST OF HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A NEARLY PERMANENT FEATURE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

INTERIOR...AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM. THE
850 MB TEMP WAS +4C ON THE 12Z PAFA SOUNDING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM TO +8-12C ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BY 00Z
FRI. THIS WILL MEAN A LOT OF HIGHS AOA 70 FOR LOWER ELEVATION
LOCALS WED-FRI. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE
AK RANGE AND WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SLY WIND IN AREAS
NEAR THE AK RANGE. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHTNING...OR AT MOST A FEW STRIKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

WEST COAST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. AN ELONGATED
994 MB LOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 997 MB OFF THE KAMCHATKA
COAST MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED MORNING
BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED BY A 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WED
PM.

NORTH SLOPE...THE ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH HIGHER SFC PRESSURES OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THERE WAS REALLY NOT ANY DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE LOW STATUS YESTERDAY AND THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
INLAND TO UMIAT PER THE WEB CAM IMAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LIKELY ONLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGES IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN IN THE LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG AND FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MID-RANGE...THE MOST HIGHLY PREDICTABLE FEATURE THIS COMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A STRONG UPPER HIGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
TIME TO COME. THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR MAY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION AT TIMES...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE AVAILABLE.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR ZONES 223 AND 226 AND
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES 221...222...224...225 VALID WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WED EVENING. WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK WILL
LIKELY MEAN A PROLONGED PERIODS OF RED FLAGS FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND FOR STRONG WIND IN AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE THAT
WILL HAVE STRONGER WIND ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF
THE AK RANGE.

HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE THE BUCKLAND RIVER AT BUCKLAND. OTHERWISE...THERE
ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. INTERIOR RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME SLOW RISES THIS WEEK AS THE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO MELT
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.

CLIMATE...NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE
FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SO FAR THIS MONTH. THE LAST TIME
WE WENT THIS DEEP INTO THE MONTH OF MAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WAS BACK IN 1974.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224-AKZ225.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

JK MAY 11