Small Craft Advisory 160, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
407 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP 480 DM LOW NEAR 80N/150W HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO NW CANADA BY WED AS
A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED AND THU. THE NEXT
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA WED AND THU.

SURFACE...
A 995 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE 300 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AS A 995 MB LOW BY 4AM WED AND THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW IS WEAKER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND THE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
INDICATED. STILL EXPECT LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE ARCTIC
COAST WITH THIS STORM HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL REACHING 50-60 MPH
FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS AS A RESULT. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE COASTAL FLOODING
AND HEAVY SURF IN NW AK SINCE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WEST WINDS
OVER LONG FETCH NOW MOVING INTO COAST WILL PROBABLY RAISE SEA
LEVEL 1-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO DEMARCATION
POINT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM WED AND THEN STRETCH EASTWARD. EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND JUST AFTER THIS FRONT.

A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE NE GULF OF ALASKA HAS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING NE TO NEAR BURWASH LANDING. THIS IS NOW CAUSING HEAVY
SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS SE OF TOK AND CHICKEN. EXPECT STORM
TOTAL OF 4-8 INCHES BY WED AM IN THIS AREAS. HAVE ALREADY HAD
REPORTS OF 4 INCHES FROM TOK. NW WINDS 15-25 KT AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH STRONGER GUSTS
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON THU MORNING
AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING AS A 975 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG EAST WINDS TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THU INTO FRI
AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE WELL.
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH NAM THROUGH 4AM THU AS IT APPEARS TO SHOW
DEEPER FEATURES REFLECTING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER 4AM THU GFS APPEARS TO HANDLED BERING SEA LOW BETTER THAN NAM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ224-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215.
&&

JB NOV 11