Small Craft Advisory 148, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
609 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG S-SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND
THEN WEAKEN WED AND THE TROUGH MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH
TUE AND CHINOOKS CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TODAY
THROUGH TUE. SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WED WITH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH.

SURFACE...
A 1030 MB HIGH 800 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CAUSING EAST WINDS AND FLURRIES AND FOG
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO
NOME TO FORT YUKON BY 4PM MON AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND ARCTIC COAST TUE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH THE AMOUNTS DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES NORTH. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY.

A STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST
TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW
STRETCHING EAST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO BETHEL TO KING
SALMON BY 4PM MON AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN
WEAKEN ALONG AN ANVIK TO BETTLES LINE BY 4PM TUE. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TONIGHT-TUE WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ZONES 215 AND 216 AND POSSIBLY 227.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE A MODERATE CHINOOK ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
TODAY THROUGH TUE.

THIS FRONT WILL REFORM AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIFT EAST WED
SPREADING SNOW AND COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE PROBLEM INITIALIZING THE DEPTH OF THE SE BERING LOW
ALOFT. THE NAM INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE BEST AT AND WAS THE MODEL
OF CHOICE AS A RESULT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

JB OCT 11