Small Craft Advisory 116, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...FILLING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY 06Z TUE. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN INTERIOR MON...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINNING MON EVENING. THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LATE MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKENING SLOWLY MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN OR SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS.

LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE MON
NIGHT...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES
BEGINNING EARLY TUE...700 MB WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE MAXING
OUT AT 50-55 KT. WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226 MAY BE NEEDED ON
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC ZONES AND
MARINE AREAS INCREASING MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WORKS IT WAY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. NORTHEAST GALES OVER PKZ225 CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THU. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES EXPANDING OVER
PKZ210 AND PKZ220 TUE...SMALL CRAFT TO MINIMUM GALE DEVELOPING
OVER PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245 TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ROUGH SEAS TO 10-12 FT
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA BEGINNING TUE
AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ON THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230. GALE
WARNING...PKZ210-PKZ225.

&&

RF SEP 11