Small Craft Advisory 100, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
632 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT
AS THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS. AS THIS HAPPENS FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FRI AND SAT. RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR OVER ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH FRI AND THEN
THE INTERIOR WILL SEE AND WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

A SHORT AVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO A
BARROW TO GALENA LINE BY 4PM TODAY AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY 4PM FRI.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR TO BE RE-
ENERGIZED TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT.

SURFACE...
A WEATHER FRONT FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE O MCGRATH WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT TO AN EAGLE TO
DENALI PARK LINE BY 4PM FRI. THERE IS RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES 227 AND 221 TODAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT IN ZONE 206 TODAY AND
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES ALL ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN. ATIGUN PASS COULD GET UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA TODAY. THIS IS CAUSING
WINDS TO DECREASE IN THOSE AREA.

A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE
LISBURNE AS A 993 MB LOW BY 4PM FRI AND TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF
BARROW AS A 1000 MB LOW BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE BERING AND CHUKCHI
SEAS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE SEVERAL FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE RISING SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT THAN THE HIGH SURF EARLIER
THIS WEEK.

A STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA ON SAT.
THIS WILL CAUSE S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM FRI THEN
THE GFS MOVES THE CHUKCHI SEA LOW EAST FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS.
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS FAST WEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT MODELS TEND TO MOVE THESE LOWS TOO SLOWLY WE OPTED
TO GO WITH THE FASTER GFS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE BERING AND
CHUKCHI SEAS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE SEVERAL FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OF
ALASKA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE RISING SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH
HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT THAN THE HIGH SURF EARLIER
THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB SEP 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST STARTING FRIDAY...

A STORM DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CAUSE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE BERING AND
CHUKCHI SEAS. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG FETCH
LENGTH WHICH WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE SEVERAL FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE
RISING SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
COASTLINES STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT THAN THE HIGH SURF EARLIER THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS
SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND OTHER ITEMS OFF THE BEACH AND TO HIGHER
GROUND TODAY BEFORE THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPS.

AKZ213-090000-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HEAVY SURF POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING...

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES
SUCH AS AT GAMBELL...LITTLE DIOMEDE...WALES AND PORT CLARENCE.

AKZ207-090000-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES
SUCH AS AT KIVALINA AND POINT HOPE.

AKZ209-090000-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT SOUTH AND WEST FACING
COASTLINES SUCH AS AT KOTZEBUE.

AKZ211-090000-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
INCLUDING...NOME...WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WITH A SEA LEVEL RISE OF 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK HIGHER UP ON THE BEACH AND CAUSE MINOR
EROSION. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE WAVES TO WASH OVER THE NOME TO
COUNCIL ROAD MAKING TRAVEL ON THAT ROAD DIFFICULT. PEOPLE ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MOVE ITEMS OFF THE BEACH AT NOME BY TONIGHT.

AKZ212-090000-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. WITH A SEA LEVEL RISE OF SEVERAL FEET ABOVE NORMAL WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK HIGHER UP ON THE BEACH AND CAUSE MINOR
EROSION.

AKZ214-090000-
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...EMMONAK...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
847 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. WITH A SEA LEVEL RISE OF SEVERAL FEET ABOVE NORMAL WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK HIGHER UP ON THE BEACH AND CAUSE MINOR
EROSION.