Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

311 
WWAK62 PAFG 032233
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...

AKZ227-032345-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110604T0800Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
233 PM AKDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

DISCUSSION...WINDY TONIGHT BUT NOT TOO DRY.


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT FRI JUN 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS ALTHOUGH DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON POSITION OF LOW IN BERING SEA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST BY WAY OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND PUSHING THE
RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL CREATE SUBSTANTIAL
LOWER LEVEL WARMING. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMAINING COLD AIR BACK TO
THE NORTH THAT WAS ADVECTED IN BY WAY OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON THU.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GAP FLOW WINDS IN ZONES
225...226 AND 227. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN WINDY PASS
BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
LIMITED PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST.
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE
SAT BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL IN TERMS OF FALLING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE RH VALUES WHICH
WILL AID IN SLOWING THE SPAN OF FIRES BURNING THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
ON SAT AND COOLER MARITIME AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED BACK INTO THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA WHICH WILL SETTLE THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
ABOUT NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN THE ARCTIC BEGINNING FRI
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL BE INFLUENCED PRETTY MUCH BY WIND DIRECTION AS
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK...EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT DURING MID
WEEK AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
INCOMING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND
MOVES EAST TO ABOUT 170W BY THU. DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT INCOMING
LOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PAC/BC AND INTO
EASTERN AK. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW STRONG THE RIDGING
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
POINT TOWARD A RETURN TO 500 MB HEIGHTS AND A LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
THAT IS ABOVE CLIMO...AND WOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NCEP RMOPS ALSO POINT TOWARD A REBUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE MAINLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE QUITE CONVECTIVE
SEASON CONTINUES WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW RH VALUES AND SOME ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS
OVER ZONES 219...220 WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO MODELS OVER
ZONE 222. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ZONE 225
WHERE FIRES ARE BURNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER ZONE
223 AS WELL TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF JUN 11