High Surf Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 30 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CENTRAL
PRESSURES OF THE NEW BERING LOW ARE NOT SIMILAR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW IS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS THOUGH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
TO INCLUDE ZONES 214...215 AND 212.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE IN
ZONES 214 AND 215 AND POSSIBLY NEAR THAT IN THE NULATO HILLS OF
ZONE 212. WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW IN NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL GET TO
NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.

STRONG WINDS EAST WINDS IN NORTON SOUND WILL FORCE WATER BACK OUT
OF THE SOUND WHERE IT HAD PILED UP JUST RECENTLY WITH THE LAST
MONSTER STORM. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH TO NEAR UNALAKLEET
BY LATE SAT NIGHT STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CREATE HIGH SURF FOR THE SHORE AROUND ZONE 214. AT
THIS POINT...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT HIGH SURF IS
DEFINITELY LIKELY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR COASTAL ISSUES.
THE 18Z MODEL RUN IS MORE EXCITED ABOUT THE WINDS AS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY THAT THE 12Z MODEL WHICH WILL
BRING THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS UP THE COAST MORE THAN ORIGINALLY
PRESENTED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND THE STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
NICELY ON THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SAT BUT DO NOT EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHOUT FALLING SNOW. CERTAINLY LOW
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THOUGH.

WINDS NEAR POINT HOPE WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT AROUND
POINT HOPE FOR THIS EVENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING TO
NEAR 55 MPH ON SATURDAY.

THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SNOWFALL IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TANANA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HERE IS THAT
BEGINNING SAT...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION POURING
IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LEFT AROUND FROM THIS BERING SEA LOW. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING SNOW THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SCOOP UP MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS
SCREAMING SOUTHWARD. ACTUALLY...THE GFS DOES PICK UP ON THIS TO
SOME DEGREE AS WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF NOV 11