Gale Warning 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

207 
FZAK52 PAFG 291027
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300130-
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH
SAT. A COLD FRONT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE
NORTON SOUND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FAR
EAST RUSSIA AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-300130-
NORTON SOUND-
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-300130-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT...HIGHEST
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO
5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-300130-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-300130-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
227 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

DA/CB JUL 11

366 
FZAK52 PAFG 291522
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300015-
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH
SAT. A COLD FRONT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE
NORTON SOUND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FAR
EAST RUSSIA AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-300015-
NORTON SOUND-
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-300015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-300015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-300015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
722 AM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JUL 11

410 
FZAK52 PAFG 292135
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-301245-
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 999 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 600 NM OF
DEMARCATION POINT BY 4AM SAT AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM SAT.  WILL MOVE EAST OF DEMARCATION
POINT FRI NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR CAPE NAVARIN BY
4PM SUN. 

$$

PKZ200-301245-
NORTON SOUND-
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-301245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-301245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-301245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
135 PM AKDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JUL 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM AKDT THU JUL 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST
ALASKA AND GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME RIDGING HOLDS INTO
THE WEEKEND. A LOW IN THE SE BERING SEA MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA FRI NIGHT.

SFC...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FRI.
A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARCTIC COASTS PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF BARROW FRI
MORNING AT 998 MB. WEAK FLOW THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SOUTH OF CHICKEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
AND WEAKEN. THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BE MORE STABLE ON FRI AS THE
RIDGE IN THAT AREA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN ZONES 219 AND 221.
BY SAT ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRI EVENING
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR SAT WITH RAIN AND A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS AND HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.

NORTH SLOPE...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NW ALASKA AND A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE NW COAST AND SPREAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA
COAST FRI. THE STORM SURGE MODEL KEEPS THE TIDES LESS THAN 1 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRI.

WEST COAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE OUTER CAPES
AND SPREAD SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NIGHT ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. A LONG SW FETCH EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE WATERS INTO THE NORTON SOUND LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WATER TO PILE UP IN THE NORTON
SOUND. STORM SURGE MODEL PEAKS OUT AT ABOUT 2 FT AT NOME AND 3 FT
AT GOLOVIN. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO ABOUT 8 FEET OFFSHORE AND
AROUND 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR MODERATE
SURF...BUT JUST SHY OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS RISE IN SURF. COASTAL FLOODING
LOOKS VERY SLIM AND IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME MINOR BEACH
EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEAS AND SURF SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN THE NORTON SOUND BY SAT MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR LATE
FRI SPREADING EAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

HYDROLOGY...THE SALCHA RIVER AT THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY BRIDGE
APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AT NOON TODAY AROUND 9.7 FT...WELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14 FT. WATER RISES ON THE TANANA RIVER
WILL CONTINUE AT CHENA LAKES AND FAIRBANKS TODAY...BUT WELL
WITHIN BANKFULL.

AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR HAS PRODUCED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWAY WHERE OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER RISES EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR LATE FRI AND INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR FRI NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO
BE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

RL JUL 11