Gale Warning 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

613 
FZAK52 PAFG 201050
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-210200-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
965 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOFS AT 4 AM SUN WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO BE A 972 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF BERING
STRAIT AT 4 AM MON AND A 980 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CHUKCHI
SEA AT 4 PM MON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ200-210200-
NORTON SOUND-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-210200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S. SNOW.
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-210200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-210200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/EWP MAR 11

502 
FZAK52 PAFG 202211
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-211315-
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT LATE SUN AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. AT 4 PM AKDT MON... THE LOW WILL BE
981 MB 100 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. AT 4 PM AKDT TUE...THE
LOW WILL BE 990 MB 270 NM WEST OF BARROW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ200-211315-
NORTON SOUND-
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-211315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-211315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-211315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
211 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING W. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/DA MAR 11

165 
FZAK52 PAFG 210950
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-220100-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 977 MB LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY MON MORNING WILL MOVE
TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WEAKEN TO 979 MB BY LATE MON MORNING...THEN
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUE MORNING FILLING TO 987 MB. A 987 MB LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY TUE MORNING...WEAKENING TO 990 MB.

$$

PKZ200-220100-
NORTON SOUND-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-220100-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND S WINDS 30 KT. OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTHWEST WIND 25 KT BECOMING SOUTH AFTER NOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-220100-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-220100-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT BECOMING W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MORNING.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/TF MAR 11

759 
FZAK52 PAFG 212200
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-221300-
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 981 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT LATE MON
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
THROUGH WED. A 987 MB LOW ABOUT 500 NM SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND LATE MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED. AT 4 PM AKDT WED... THE LOW WILL
BE 1001 MB NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

$$

PKZ200-221300-
NORTON SOUND-
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-221300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE BERING
STRAIT COAST IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-221300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-221300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING W. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RF/DA MAR 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
603 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE HAS STARTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE PERSIST ANT BLOCKING HIGH THAT WAS PARKED OVER THE STATE FOR
NEARLY THREE WEEKS HAS BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD INTO CANADA. THE STABLE
AND BENIGN WEATHER THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE MONTH SO FAR WILL BE
REPLACED WITH WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

A STRETCHED OUT WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING LOW IN THE
FAR WESTERN BERING SEA HAS PUSHED THE FIRST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOWFALL SINCE FEBRUARY INTO THE BERING SEA COAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND DEEPEN
TO 967 MB JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY 4 AM SUNDAY...THEN
CONTINUE NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT BY 4 AM MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT SHOOTS UP INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUE MORNING. THE MODELS
DID HAVE QUITE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS LOW WITH NAM HOLDING THE LOW BACK OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND
THE GFS/ECMWF PROGGING IT TO RAPIDLY CONTINUE A NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE NAM SEEMS TO BE COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
INCONSISTENCIES. IN EITHER CASE...DECIDED TO BASE FORECASTS OFF OF
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.

NORTH SLOPE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL STILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEAR
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE BERING AND EVENTUALLY THE
CHUKCHI WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE. CLOUDS ALONG WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WEST COAST...STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE YUKON DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AS SNOW...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SPITS OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GOOD PUSH OF SOUTHERLIES
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY BREAKUP SOME ICE ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT...

INTERIOR...WHATS LEFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY BIG CHANGE IS THE INFLUX OF
CLOUDS AND MUCH WARMER NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AK215.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

EWP MAR 11