Gale Warning 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

327 
FZAK52 PAFG 211229
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-220330-
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1010 MB LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY 3 AM WED DEEPENING TO 995 MB.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE ALASKA
INTERIOR THROUGH TUE.


$$

PKZ200-220330-
NORTON SOUND-
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT.  
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-220330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY NOON. BLOWING
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT...INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 40 KT. SNOW OR RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT.  
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-220330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-220330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
329 AM AKST MON FEB 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DJH/RF FEB 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
124 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 00Z MON ON CENTRAL TRACK AND
PRESSURE OF STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
978 MB LOW WEST OF CAPE NAVARIN AT 06Z MOVING TO
WEST OF KOTZEBUE SOUND BY 00Z MON FILLING TO 988 MB.
BY 12Z MON...GFS MOVING THE LOW A BIT FASTER THAN THE
NAM/EURO AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST.
EYEBALL AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS PUTS THE CENTER AROUND
100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARROW AT 00Z MON...CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 998 MB. BY 00Z TUE...LOW CONTINUING
TO FILL AS IT EXITS TOWARDS THE MACKENZIE DELTA REGION.
WESTERLIES TO 25-40 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT IN AKZ204 AFTER THE LOW EXITS.

SMOOTH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WILL RAPIDLY DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY THIS EVENING AS A MODERATE
TO STRONG FLAT WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHES EASTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR. SNOW SPREADING TO MOST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
BY THIS EVENING.

NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN VALID TIMES OF CURRENT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS...EXCEPT WILL PROBABLY EXTEND
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ214 AN ADDITIONAL 3 HOURS TO 9 AM.
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR AS THE FAST WESTERLIES ALOFT MOVE IN...WILL
ADD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...STRONG
RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND BY
WED WITH FURTHER BUILDING OF THE RIDGE THU AS THE
AXIS MOVES TO THE EASTERN MAINLAND. GFS/EURO DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY BY FRI AS THE GFS MOVES THE NEXT DEEP
TROUGH IN MUCH FASTER THAN THE EURO. FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH
SURFACE SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE CURRENT
RUNS ARE NO EXCEPTION. ONE OR TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TRANSIT EAST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA/ARCTIC OCEAN...A MODERATELY
STRONG LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE BERING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

RF FEB 11