Gale Warning 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

867 
FZAK51 PAFG 052245
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-061345-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 MB LOW NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...ENTERING THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SAT EVENING
AND CONTINUING EAST. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

$$

PKZ225-061345-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT TURNING W THEN N.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-061345-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-061345-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT BY NOON.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-061345-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING.
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-061345-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
145 PM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT TURNING SW....INCREASING TO 25 KT
BY MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DJH FEB 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE NAME
CONSISTENTLY KEEPS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH STRONGER THAN THE GFS.
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 06Z SURFACE MAP INDICATED THAT THE NAM IS
MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE GFS.

THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA APPEARS TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT QUITE DEEP
ENOUGH WITH IT. THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE NAM SOLUTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY THOUGH AND THEN STAYS IN LOCK STEP WITH IT FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. THIS LOW WILL DRAG MUCH COLDER AIR IN BEHIND IT TO
THE ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC PLAIN NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. NOT
MUCH OF THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. BY
LATE SUN NIGHT WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST
FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE BEING
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS.

THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND. THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

A LARGE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH AN EXPANSIVE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL MOVE TO WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT IS EATEN AWAY BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BY
SUN EVENING IT WILL BECOME ONLY A WEAK TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA.

BY MON ANOTHER LARGE LOW WILL NORTH FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND BE POSITIONED NEAR COLD BAY BY TUE EVENING AND THIS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER AND FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO LIE DOWN A
BIT AND MOVE EAST BY LATE WED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OFF MON EVENING WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN
THE EAST PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS THAT EXTENDS N-NW
INTO EASTERN AK.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK
WHICH LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.  THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TOWARD THE AK
PENINSULA TUE-WED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GETTING NUDGED TO THE EAST
AND WEAKENING.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS
WITH BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF RUN THE SURFACE LOW NORTH UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE GULF.  LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST FROM
SIBERIA AND THE HIGH ARCTIC AND INTO NORTHERN AK...BUT IT IS A LONG
WAY OUT THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR A COLD OUTBREAK JUST
YET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CF FEB 11