Gale Warning 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

781 
FZAK52 PAFG 271115
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-280300-
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SIBERIA AND THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST SOUTH OF POINT HOPE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-280300-
NORTON SOUND-
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR CHANNELED AREAS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR CHANNELED AREAS.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT.

$$

PKZ210-280300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LOCALLY
1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LOCALLY
1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-280300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 10 KT SOUTH OF
CAPE ESPENBERG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE ESPENBERG.
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT.

$$

PKZ220-280300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
215 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT.

$$

SDB/CB DEC 11

266 
FZAK52 PAFG 272333
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-281445-
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SIBERIA AND THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUST SOUTH OF POINT HOPE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-281445-
NORTON SOUND-
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-281445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-281445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-281445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
233 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CWA/RF DEC 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
ALASKA MAINLAND. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH OF AN INFLUX OF GULF OF
ALASKA WEATHER FRONTS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE MOST RECENT ONE ENTERED THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY MORNING. IT BROUGHT EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE TANANA VALLEY...WHERE MANY OBSERVING
STATIONS MEASURED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AND TO THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. THIS FRONT IS NOW EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON
FLATS...SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUKON RIVER TO KUSKOKWIM BAY. IT IS
NOW DISSIPATING.

ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER FRONT IN THIS ONGOING SERIES IS NOW
COMING ASHORE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST FROM KETCHIKAN TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE WEATHER FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SNOWFALL.

THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FORECASTS -- TABLES OF FORECAST
TEMPERATURES...PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND SO FORTH -- ARE
BASED ON THE COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS. SUNDAY AFTERNOONS
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CHANCES OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION IN NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS WAS ALSO THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...AS
YESTERDAYS GULF OF ALASKA WEATHER FRONT WAS ABOUT TO BRING 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECASTS INCLUDE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS ARE NOT AS COLD
AS IN THE FORECASTS YESTERDAY AND SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE. THE CLOUD
COVER BROUGHT IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS ACTED AS A BLANKET
AND FORESTALLED RADIATIVE COOLING OF THE AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND
TO CONTINUE ITS LENGTHENING RESIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AND BEYOND. ALSO...BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS FEATURE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

BOTH MODELS STILL FORECAST A NEW LOW ALOFT TO MOVE FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS NEW
INFLUX OF COLD AIR FROM THE FAR NORTH WOULD REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
MASS NOW OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
FORECASTING A FASTER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THAT IT WAS FOR THE PAST
TWO DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS. NONETHELESS...BOTH OF THESE MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST 30
BELOW TO 40 BELOW AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATER THIS WEEK. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FORECASTS PREDICT JUST THAT.

THE NORTH WINDS OVER THE ALASKA COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE NEW GULF OF ALASKA LOW...NOW
HEADED NORTHWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CIRCULATION OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS NEW GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...SO THE WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND OVER THE WEST COAST ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THEIR STRENGTH...OR
EVEN INCREASE SOME TODAY. THE GFS...NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL
FORECAST THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON
TUESDAY.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH WEATHER FRONTS WEAKENING OVER THE
INTERIOR...THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED. IN THE
ARCTIC...A BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE OF ALASKA. THE INLAND
ARCTIC PLAIN IS CLEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S BELOW.
MUCH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA IS CLEAR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

TF DEC 11