Gale Warning 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

317 
FZAK52 PAFG 201150
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-210030-
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 MB LOW 100 MILES S OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO
A 993 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY 3 AM WED. A 975 MB LOW
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH SEVERAL 993 MB CENTERS OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR BY WED 
MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-210030-
NORTON SOUND-
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-210030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-210030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-210030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
250 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT.
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/RL DEC 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED 972 MB LOW STRETCHING FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO
OUTER NORTON SOUND FILLING TO AROUND 990 MB BY 12Z TUE WITH
ONLY A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINING. SOME WRAPAROUND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE MOST OF THE WEST COAST/BROOKS
RANGE/CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY. OVER THE NULATO HILLS...WRAPAROUND
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER WITH BY MORNING...SO WILL
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ216 AND THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A TIGHT PINCH IN THE ISOBARS FROM
POINT LAY TO POINT HOPE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF AKZ201.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALLY
POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY
POOR VISIBILITY PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING IN AKZ213...BUT
IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES.

NEXT LOW ON DECK IS NOW DEVELOPING NEAR 46N/177E...MODELS
DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM TO 975 MB CAPE NEWENHAM BY 00Z WED...
THEN FILLING TO AROUND 995 MB BY 00Z THU AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z FRI AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHINOOK
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUE MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM...DIMINISHING WED AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS COULD APPROACH OR REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME...GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNNING NOTICEABLY
COLDER AT 850 MB THAN THE CORRESPONDING EUROPEAN PRODUCTS
WHICH KEEP 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF DEC 11