Gale Warning 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

162 
FZAK52 PAFG 111244
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120030-
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 957 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE NAVARIN AS A 967 MB LOW BY 3PM SUN...TO NEAR ANADYR AS A 976
MB LOW BY 3AM MON...AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A WEATHER
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TO BARROW BY BY 3PM SUN...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST.


$$

PKZ200-120030-
NORTON SOUND-
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 45 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 50 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-120030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 50 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 50 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 50 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-120030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-120030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
344 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 45 KT.  

$$

DEC 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
651 AM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND
NW PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OVER NW NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST FORT HE
NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT SW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PAST WILL WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AK FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS A RESULT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND BRING MORE SNOW...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CHINOOK WINDS IN THE SE INTERIOR.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM DEADHORSE TO NORTHWAY WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ALCAN BORDER BY NOON TODAY. THERE ARE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THIS TROUGH AND CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED WEST OF THE
TROUGH.

SURFACE...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST INTO SUN.

A 955 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A 955 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT AND TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR AS A 967 MB LOW BY 3PM SUN AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA TO YUKON DELTA BY 3PM SAT...POINT HOPE TO
MCGRATH BY 3AM SUN...AND TO BARROW TO BETTLES TO DENALI BY 3PM SUN
AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY 3PM MON.

THERE ARE SE WINDS 35-45 KTS ALONG THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WITH 50 KT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT
4-10 INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THE
FRONT...HEAVIEST FROM NOME SOUTH. THIS IS OR WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE
FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...WITH ZONES 214 AND 215 THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WINDS AND SNOW WILL DECREASE BUT STILL
EXPECTED 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR SUN PM-MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MODERATE
CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAT
WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH 3PM SUN. MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY RUN TO RUN ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF AK SUN AND THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HOW MUCH
SNOW IT WILL CAUSE THERE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 11