Gale Warning 133, NWS Fairbanks, AK

059 
FZAK52 PAFG 022102
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031500-
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL MOVE NORTH
AND EAST. A 968 MB STORM WILL MOVE TO NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING
AT 982 MB.

$$

PKZ200-031500-
NORTON SOUND-
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 45 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-031500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 60 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 50 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-031500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
1202 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

SDB/JAM DEC 11

050 
FZAK52 PAFG 031245
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040345-
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG 960 MB STORM IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE 
NORTH TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO KOTZEBUE
SOUND BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AT 974 MB.

$$

PKZ200-040345-
NORTON SOUND-
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SUN...S WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT.
.MON...SW WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 55 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 55 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SUN...S WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 45 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-040345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER NOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
345 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

JK/CC DEC 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1232 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE PROGGED DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR
STORM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE ALASKA
WEST COAST SAT THROUGH SUN. 01/12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS DIFFER IN
TIMING...01/12Z GFS RUN AGREES WELL WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE
FORECAST POSITION 12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z SUN. THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
NAM AND THE 01/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE RUNNING AROUND
9 HR OR SLOWER IN THIS GENERAL TIME FRAME. THE 01/18Z NAM RUN HAS
JUST COME IN AND IT IS LINING UP MUCH CLOSER TO THE 01/12Z
GFS...SO WE WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THESE TWO RUNS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN
CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE GFS/NAM.

MODELS AGREE WELL ON STRONG CHINOOK WIND EVENT IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...700 MB WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
MAXING OUT AROUND 90 KT.

MAJOR WEATHER EXPECTED...
AKZ213...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EARLY SAT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT EVENING. WINDS
GUSTING TO 60-70 MPH DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

AKZ214...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SAT INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AKZ215-AKZ216...HEAVY SNOW IN MANY AREAS EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

AKZ227...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PARTS SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

AKZ225-AKZ226...STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PASSES SOUTH OF THE
TOK CUTOFF SAT THROUGH SUN. LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

AKZ227...WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN PASSES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

AKZ201...INCREASING WINDS SAT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED EARLY FRI.

AKZ220-AKZ221...SOUTHWEST WINDS 35-50 MPH OVER HIGHER SUMMITS
ON THE STEESE/ELLIOT HIGHWAYS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
FRI NIGHT. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW.

AKZ219...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FRI MORNING OR FRI AFTERNOON.

AKZ221...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FRI MORNING OR FRI AFTERNOON.

SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

RF DEC 11