Gale Warning 131, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
559 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ITS WINTER IN ALASKA AND THE MAPS LOOK LIKE IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE LOWER 48 AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS SET TO BRING IN FAST MOVING AND ACTIVE
ALEUTIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. FOLLOWING
THIS WEEK...THE STRONG TRACK WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
ONE...ORIGINATING IN THE EAST ALEUTIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
IN MORE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES IS NOW OVER NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY. IT HAS BEEN HEADING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WHICH IS
NOT UNUSUALLY FAST FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THE GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL
PREDICTS THIS SYSTEM TO BE NEAR TANANA AT THIS TIME THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE OVERNIGHT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WEATHER SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
THE INBOUND PACIFIC WEATHER FRONT JUMPING UP FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND AT 4.45 PM ALASKA STANDARD TIME TUESDAY TO THE EASTERN
ALASKA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. MORE ENERGY IS INBOUND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN ALASKA MAINLAND TODAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS COMPUTER
WEATHER FORECAST MODEL TO BE JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST 12 HOURS LATER IT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS
TO BE AT THE EAST END OF SAINT LAWERENCE ISLAND. IN ANOTHER 12
HOURS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTON SOUND. IN YET
ANOTHER 12 HOURS IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR KOTZEBUE. IT IS USEFUL
TO REMEMBER IN HIGH ENERGY WEATHER SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE THE
ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE INCLUDES THE CIRCULATION AT ALL
ALTITUDES IN THE STORM...AS WELL AS THE ENERGY OF
TRANSLATION...OR MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. IN TODAYS
CASE...THE PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
ALOFT IS SIGNIFICANT.

THE OVERALL RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN CIRCULATION PATTERN...AS
WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF CIRCULATION WITH IT...WILL CHANGE THE PATH
OF INBOUND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK...TO A VIGOROUS SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...ALEUTIAN LOWS SHOULD COME
INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE EARLY MORNING POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO THE
YUKON DELTA. THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR HAVE TOPS
ESTIMATED BY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TO HAVE TOPS TO 27000
FEET. THIS IS A SOLID WEATHER SYSTEM.

THE CHUKCHI SEA FROM POINT LAY DOWN PAST CAPE LISBURNE TO BERING
STRAIT AND DOWN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS UNDER OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS. GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BLOWING AT GAMBELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

TF NOV 11