Brisk Wind Advisory 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

165 
FZAK52 PAFG 210950
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-220100-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 977 MB LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY MON MORNING WILL MOVE
TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WEAKEN TO 979 MB BY LATE MON MORNING...THEN
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUE MORNING FILLING TO 987 MB. A 987 MB LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY TUE MORNING...WEAKENING TO 990 MB.

$$

PKZ200-220100-
NORTON SOUND-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-220100-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND S WINDS 30 KT. OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTHWEST WIND 25 KT BECOMING SOUTH AFTER NOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-220100-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-220100-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
150 AM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT BECOMING W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW IN THE
MORNING.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/TF MAR 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
554 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA PASSED THROUGH
THE PRIBILOFS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AKDT AND IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES NORTH. IT IS DUE TO PASS OVER BERING STRAIT MONDAY MORNING
AND TO BE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS STRETCHING IN THE USUAL
MANNER. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST END
WHICH IS NOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND...AND THE
SOUTHEAST END WHICH IS DOWN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO FAR...THIS
FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT MUCH PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PART OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH BIG BERING SEA LOWS
PRECEDED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS NORMALLY FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF SUCH SYSTEMS. THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS FOR THE WEST
REFLECT THIS PATTERN.

THE GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL HANDLED THE BERING SEA
LOW QUITE WELL. THE SAME WAS TRUE OF THE LOW THAT PRECEDED IT AND
REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY ON THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THESE GOOD PROJECTIONS OF THE GFS...ITS
CURRENT RUN HAS BEEN MOST OF THE BASIS OF THIS MORNINGS
FORECASTS. THE NAM MODEL FORECASTS TODAYS BERING SEA LOW TO MOVE
NORTH FASTER THAN THE GFS RUN. GIVEN THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION
ALOFT...THE GFS FORECAST LOOKS BETTER.

TEMPERATURES ON THE YUKON DELTA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY REACHED THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN HAS
COME WITH THE SNOW IN THESE AREAS. COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION THERE TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.

THE GFS AND NAM MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TO
WEAKEN OVER THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST PART OF THE REALM SHOULD
BRING IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW OUT THERE UP TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN IT
IS NOW. THE NEXT INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLEARED THE SOUTH
END OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM DOES
NOT HAVE THE INFLOW OF ENERGY FROM THE MID LATITUDES OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC THAT ITS TWO PREDECESSORS DID. ALSO...MOST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF 60
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. HENCE THE FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD ARE
FOR RATHER LOW INTENSITY WEATHER THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ALASKA.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE YUKON FLATS NORTHWEST OF FORT
YUKON AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE BETWEEN ARCTIC
VILLAGE AND CHANDALAR LAKE. THE FORECASTS FOR THESE ZONES ARE
BEING UPDATED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

TF MAR 11