Brisk Wind Advisory 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

679 
FZAK52 PAFG 191107
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-200115-
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND
DISSIPATE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE A 967 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF THE
PRIBILOFS AT 4 AM SUN AND A 975 MB LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY
4 AM MON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON SUN.

$$

PKZ200-200115-
NORTON SOUND-
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT.
.SUN...SE WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-200115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-200115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-200115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
307 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RL/EWP MAR 11

418 
FZAK52 PAFG 192145
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-201245-
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 960 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL PASS JUST EAST OF
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH AND WEAKEN TO 975 MB NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY 4 AM
AKDT MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ200-201245-
NORTON SOUND-
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 40 KT. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-201245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-201245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.
.SUN...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-201245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.SUN...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

SAK/CB MAR 11

613 
FZAK52 PAFG 201050
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-210200-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
965 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOFS AT 4 AM SUN WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO BE A 972 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF BERING
STRAIT AT 4 AM MON AND A 980 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CHUKCHI
SEA AT 4 PM MON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ200-210200-
NORTON SOUND-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-210200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S. SNOW.
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-210200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-210200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
250 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/EWP MAR 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND NAM COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS PROJECT SIMILAR
OUTCOMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET
THE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA IS COMING BACK TO LIFE...BUT
NOT IN STUNNING FASHION.

THIS MORNING THERE ARE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RELEVANT TO THE
FORECASTS. THE FIRST / LOW NUMBER 1 / IS JUST NORTH OF THE END OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE THE SIBERIAN COAST NEAR 173 DEGREES
EAST LONGITUDE EARLY SATURDAY. GALES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
BLOWING OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE BERING SEA AND PART OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OF ALASKA. DUE TO ITS NORTHWARD PATH THIS LOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE GREAT IMPACT OTHER THAN WIND.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN ADVANCE OF LOW NUMBER 1 IS NOW STRETCHED
FROM SOUTH CHUKOTKA TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. NEARLY ALL OF THE
REAL ENERGY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SPLIT...THE NORTHERN PART IS
NOW OVER CHUKOTKA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS RACING EAST INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION HAS YET TO BEGIN OVER THE BERING SEA
COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO COME WITH A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE UP OVER THE EAST BERING SEA TONIGHT AND
INTO THE CHUKCHI ON SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING SEA COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE REST OF
THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY.

THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM / LOW NUMBER 2 / MERITS MORE
ATTENTION. AT 10 PM ALASKA DAYLIGHT TIME ON THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM
WAS CENTERED NEAR 32 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 163 DEGREES EAST
LONGITUDE. THE WEST PACIFIC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW EXPANDING AND
SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL OF STRENGTHENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOW NUMBER 2 MAY IN FACT BE FARTHER
EAST THAN ANALYZED AND PREDICTED BY THE GFS MODEL. THIS IS
SUGGESTED BY A SHIP REPORT AT 37.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
174.2 DEGREES EAST LATITUDE...AND BY THE WEST PACIFIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BOTH OF THESE SOURCES OF INFORMATION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
IS ABOUT 400 MILES FARTHER EAST THAT FORECAST BY THE GFS.

IT IS UNUSUAL FOR SUCH A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PATTERNS...ESPECIALLY AT A TIME LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL TIME OF THE FORECAST MODEL RUN.

INDEED...LOW NUMBER 2 MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO DEPART
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PATH FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT THE LOW WILL NOT HAVE THE IMPACT OVER WESTERN ALASKA
THAT THE GFS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND LOW
MAY TAKE A PATH SOUTH OF THE REALM. FOR THIS REASON...THE WESTERN
FORECASTS DO NOT INCLUDE AS MUCH HEAVY WEATHER AS MIGHT BE
EXPECTED FROM A LOW SUCH AS THIS.

LOW NUMBER 2 IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MARITIME AIR ORIGINATING NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
UP TO THE ALASKA WEST COAST. THIS IS A HIGH ENERGY PATTERN. IF THE
FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW IS CORRECT...IT WOULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ON
THE WEST THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY.

THE GFS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT AND LASTING
WEAKENING OF CIRCULATION ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA ONCE LOW NUMBER 2 TAKES ITS FORECAST PATH UP OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IF LOW NUMBER 2 FOLLOWS A
TRAJECTORY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND...THE WEAKENING OF
CIRCULATION WOULD BEGIN MORE THAN ONE DAY EARLIER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HOLD
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST STARTING LATER TODAY...AND THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHWARD
STARTING TONIGHT. THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE ARCTIC MAY
HAVE A CONTINUED LONG WAIT FOR OVERCAST SKIES.

POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT THE NORTH BERING SEA WHICH IS NOW CLOUDING
OVER AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOW NUMBER 1. THE CLOUDS THAT
BROUGHT 0.2 INCH OF SNOW TO NORTHWAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXITED
INTO THE YUKON ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

TF MAR 11