Brisk Wind Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

916 
FZAK51 PAFG 242326
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-251330-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
STRONG 968 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING. IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO
BE A 976 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AT 3 AM FRI. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST.

$$

PKZ225-251330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 50 KT BECOMING W. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-251330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-251330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-251330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-251330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
226 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI...W WINDS TO 55 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

SDB/RF FEB 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
215 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 90 HOURS. ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAJOR
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS...THOUGH QPF IN THE
INTERIOR SEEMS A BIT HIGH.

ALOFT...RIDGE WITH HIGH CENTER NEAR SAND POINT WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AS IT TIPS MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT AND MOVE TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY.

SURFACE...1060 MB HIGH NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. 988 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHEAST OF POINT LAY
WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW TONIGHT THEN TO NORTHWESTERN
BANKS ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. 965 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM WEST OF ST MICHAEL ISLAND TONIGHT AND INTO THE BERING
STRAIT BY NOON ON THURSDAY. LOW WILL SPLIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CENTERS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND 100 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY. AS
LOW IN BERING STRAIT DISSIPATES...LOW NEAR POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO
200 NM NORTH OF BARROW FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WITH
STRONG WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS COME INTO CLEAR FOCUS DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN THE NORTHEAST PAC DURING THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG 170W. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS
IN TACT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NCEP RMOPS
INDICATE HIGH RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA/WESTERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE SETTLED PATTERN
ACROSS NORTHERN AK AS THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE KEEPS ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AT BAY. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS LIKELY AS
RADIATIVE INVERSIONS BREAK WITH THE MUCH HIGHER LATE FEB SUN
ANGLE.

NORTH SLOPE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO
BARROW...THOUGH MAY SEE A LULL IN CONDITIONS IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED SO AM KEEPING THE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WATCH ISSUED FOR 203/204 THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF LOOSE SNOW TO MOVE AROUND. LOTS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES.
DALTON HIGHWAY SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEST COAST...STORM CONTINUES UP THE COAST TODAY...EXPECT A LULL IN
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT A
RETURN TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS FOR MANY AREAS WITH POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. THERE
IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX WITH THE SNOW...BUT
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF POINT HOPE AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. AFTER THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

INTERIOR...WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE
INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND FAIRBANKS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW
CAUSING PROBLEMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DALTON...ELLIOT
AND STEESE HIGHWAYS. VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING...ABOVE 2000
FEET EXPECT 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

SDB FEB 11