Brisk Wind Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONE LOW AFTER ANOTHER TO IMPACT
NORTHERN ALASKA.

ALOFT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THIS WEEK AND IS
REPLACED BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN
EAST TO FAIRBANKS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND
WEAKENS IT PRESSES FURTHER INLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM NW CANADA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO GET NUDGED
FURTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD EXTENDED FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO
BANKS ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB BY 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. A 1022 MB
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TUESDAY.
A 989 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF GETS ABSORBED BY A NEW LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO NW
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND WEAKEN TO 987 MB BY 3 PM AKST
TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A SECOND AND MUCH DEEPER LOW (960-965 MB) IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST LOW...AND SHOULD ABSORB
THE REMAINS OF THE FIRST LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY
12Z THURSDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL PACK MUCH MORE OF A BUNCH THAN
THE FIRST LOW.

INTERIOR...THE COLD AIRMASS ALOFT HAS PEAKED WITH WARMING EXPECTED
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN QUITE COLD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
ICE FOG IN THE URBAN AREAS. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS SNOW FROM THE SECOND LOW BEGINS
TO WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM DEADHORSE TO BARTER
ISLAND THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER TO
BANKS ISLAND TONIGHT THE WIND AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH AND THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL END BY LATE EVENING IN DEADHORSE...AND IN THE
EARLY HOURS OF TUE MORNING AT BARTER ISLAND. THE WINDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST HAVE DIMINISHED BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT WHILE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGIN AT ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
WINDS IN THE SAVOONGA AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT
AS FAR EAST AS NOME BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 207-210-211 AND 214 HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW
FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE MILE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND LOW THAT MOVES
IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WATCHES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

RL FEB 11