Brisk Wind Advisory 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

058 
FZAK52 PAFG 291327 AAA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

UPDATED PKZ220

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300415-
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SIBERIA TO THE ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A 986 MB LOW WILL
MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-300415-
NORTON SOUND-
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-300415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-300415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-300415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
427 AM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

UPDATED TODAY

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING.  
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

SDB NOV 11

250 
FZAK52 PAFG 292307
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-301915-
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SIBERIA TO THE ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-301915-
NORTON SOUND-
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-301915-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-301915-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-301915-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
207 PM AKST TUE NOV 29 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

RL/EWP NOV 11

128 
FZAK52 PAFG 301325
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-010430-
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SIBERIA TO THE ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST. A 988 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL WEAKEN TO 998 MB AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN INTERIOR ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-010430-
NORTON SOUND-
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. LOCAL GUSTS 30 KT NEAR CHANNELED AREAS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. LOCAL GUSTS 30 KT NEAR CHANNELED AREAS.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-010430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-010430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 10 KT SOUTH
OF CAPE ESPENBERG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-010430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
425 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

TF/DJH NOV 11

817 
FZAK52 PAFG 302237
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-011215-
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST. A 988 MB LOW IN KUSKOKWIM BAY
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 998 MB.

$$

PKZ200-011215-
NORTON SOUND-
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-011215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 45 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-011215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-011215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
137 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

SDB NOV 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG CHINOOK ON TAP FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND MAJOR WARM UP FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT FROM A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ALASKA IS IN THE PROGRESS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BOTH IN THE
HIGH AND MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO BUILD RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AS THE RIDGE BUILD NORTH A WARM AIR
MASS WILL MOVE MOVE OVER THE STATE. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL BE
ADDITIONALLY WARMED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH WARM
COMPRESSION ON THE LEA OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN AND NEAR THE LEE OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AS A PRONOUNCED MOUNTAIN WAVE SETS UP. HIGH WIND WATCHES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALASKA RANGE ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE FORECASTING MULTIPLE SURGES OF MID
LEVEL WIND WHICH MAY EXTEND THE EVENT PAST WEDNESDAY AND CAUSE THE
WIND SPEEDS EBB WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE THURSDAY. 700 MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE ALASKA RANGE
AXIS WITH RIDGE TOP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS. VERTICAL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT A WELL ESTABLISH MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
TRANSFER MUCH OF THAT MOMENTUM TO NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE LEE OF
THE RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO BRISTOL BAY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH STRENGTH POSITION AND TRACK OF NEXT LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND POSSIBLE SECOND CHINOOK EVENT ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CC NOV 11