Brisk Wind Advisory 162, NWS Fairbanks, AK

537 
FZAK52 PAFG 252236
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-261230-
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SIBERIA TO THE ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. A STRONG LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN.

$$

PKZ200-261230-
NORTON SOUND-
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-261230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-261230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-261230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
136 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

NOV 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...BUT SLOW WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SKIES OVER THE CWA WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOWER CLOUDS MAY EVAPORATE
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR...
BRINGING IN MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN LOWER LEVELS ALOFT. LOW-END CHINOOK WINDS ARE LIKELY
IN THE ALASKA RANGE TUE AND WED. THESE FACTORS WILL ADD
UP TO MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEADHORSE WITH A STEADY 13 KT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WINDS IN AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ217
ARE BELOW THE 13 KT MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES AT DEADHORSE HAVE WARMED ABOUT
5 DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER...BRINGING WIND CHILL
NUMBERS UP TO AROUND -45F. THE MESO HIGH OVER THE
INTERIOR ARCTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...CONTINUING
MODERATELY COLD SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG PARTS OF THE ARCTIC
COAST BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
TO STAY OUT OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY TERRITORY. WINDS AT
DEADHORSE MAY REMAIN NEAR THE 13 KT THRESHOLD...BUT OTHER
REPORTING SITES ARE INDICATING LESS WIND. OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE WE WILL END THE ONGOING WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL STRETCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SAT AND SUN...BRINGING WINDS BACK UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER A SHORT INTERMISSION OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS.

MILDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE BERING
SEA...PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
CURRENT GFS AND ECMF SOLUTIONS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY
THU.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

&&

RF NOV 11