Brisk Wind Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
626 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA FRI. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FRI AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE MAKES
ITS WAY FROM THE BERING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRI. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT CAUSING HILLS TO WARM
TONIGHT AND FRI BUT THE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN COLD.

A DEEP COLD LOW NEAR THE NORTH POLE WILL MOVE OVER ALASKA NEXT
WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

850 MB TEMPERATURES NOW -20C OVER ALL THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
COAST WITH -26C OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
3C THROUGH FRI AND ANOTHER 3-5C SAT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
5-10F FRI FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER 5F RISE SAT.

TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH THE EASTERN INTERIOR REMAINING BELOW ZERO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING ALOFT FROM CORDOVA TO DAWSON. THIS LOW AND FRONT
COMBINATION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TODAY. THIS HAS
PRODUCED 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. IT WILL
DROP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. IT ALSO
HAS SET OF N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN TANANA
VALLEY THAT WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

A 1029 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN THU. THIS IS CAUSING FLURRIES AND WEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THAT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

A 1042 MB HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH SAT. THIS IS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TODAY. A
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 FRI. EXPECT EASTERLY GALES WITH THIS FRONT
AND STORM FORCES WINDS WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS WILL
BRING BLOWING SNOW AND A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ZONES 213 AND 214. IT
WILL ALSO INDUCE EAST KATABATIC WINDS AT KOTZEBUE AND UNALAKLEET
AS THE COLD AIR FROM THE INTERIOR BLOWS INTO THE LOWER PRESSURE
WIT THE FRONT.

A SECOND STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FRI
AND TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE WEST COAST.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE ARCTIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA FRI AND TO THE BEAUFORT SEA SAT. THIS WILL BRING MORE
FLURRIES AND WEST WINDS TO THE ARCTIC COAST FRI-SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE OK. THE NAM WEAKENS THE LOW IN THE BERING TODAY
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ECMF. FAVOR THE GFS SINCE THE LOW
HAS STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPORTING IT AND SHOULD MAINTAIN IT LONGER
THAN ANY MODELS ARE SHOWING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

JB NOV 11