Brisk Wind Advisory 157, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS
DO DIFFER IN MOVEMENT OF THE COLD LOW CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN
ALASKA AFTER THAT. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA SKIRTING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DO NOT MATCH UP ENTIRELY TOO WELL EITHER.

ALL OF THE MODELS DO EMPHASIZE THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL ALASKA WHICH BY MANY INDICATIONS APPEAR TO BE
AROUND FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST 10 DAYS AND LIKELY LONGER. THERE MAY
BE SOME MODERATION THIS WEEKEND WITH WESTERN ALASKA BUT THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA WILL LIKELY REMAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS DOES DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLOUD COVER
EXISTS OR NOT OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS
DO USUALLY PRODUCE OR AT LEAST ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY POSSIBLY COULD.

A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD TO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTATION BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE WITH THE SAME
CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT BE ON THE MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SO THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THU AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A STRONG LOW
KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL
CRAFT CATEGORY WITH THE NORTH WINDS BEING AMPLIFIED AS THEY SCOOT
THROUGH THE STRAIT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTH OVER WHAT LITTLE OPEN WATER EXISTS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CF NOV 11