Brisk Wind Advisory 145, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
128 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AND DEEP POLAR VORTEX ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
AROUND OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE VORTEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...LIKELY REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST LATE MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE ARCTIC
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE...GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS A TIGHT SURFACE
SYSTEM AND MOVES IT EASTWARD JUST OFF THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
COAST TUE...MOVING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THIS FEATURE IS PRETTY MUCH MEANED OUT IN THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH CARRY A MEAN LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH. NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS TAKE A LESS TIGHT SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...AS DOES THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
SOMEHWAT LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING FORECASTS.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BRISK
WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY WITH TRACE OR VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING MON NIGHT
AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF ALASKA INTO CANADA. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME...GFS WITH A TRACK CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF...WOULD PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LARGER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH BRISK
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
IN THE MID RANGE LOW ALOFT WOBBLES AROUND BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. EARLY IN THE MID-RANGE
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS. PROGRESSIVE FLOW
THEREAFTER MAKES DETAILS MORE OR LESS IMPOSSIBLE. ALL MODELS
SHOWING...EXPECTEDLY...SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF SHORT WAVES. GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 970S MB...EXACT TRACK
WILL MAKE A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY NOT TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING PKZ230-PKZ500.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

RF/RT OCT 11