Brisk Wind Advisory 105, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO ANGLE SOUTHEAST. STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO NEAR
BANKS ISLAND BY TUE. THIS WILL PUSH COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE STARTING MON NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AT 850H WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...MAINLY FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OUT OF TOUCH IN
TERMS OF SPREADING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO MOISTURE
SOURCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN OVER THE AREA ON
TUE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM THE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS POKING UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS THE COLD SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP AND INCREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH ON THE
FAR EASTERN ARCTIC COAST STARTING LATER TODAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE
OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MAINLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE NCEP RMOPS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF SPREAD IN THE HEIGHTS
DURING THE TRANSITION.  BY NEXT WEEKEND THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA.  THE
ECMWF DRIVES THE UPPER THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.  THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL SOLUTION.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN AK WITH
TEMPERATURES BY MID-LATE WEEK TRENDING BELOW NORMAL. BY NEXT
WEEKEND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE WEST COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CF APR 11