Brisk Wind Advisory 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
406 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMAINS OF THE BIG LOW ARE NOW OVER SW MAINLAND ALASKA AND
MOVING STEADILY EWD. A PIECE OF THIS REMAINS OVER THE SEWARD PEN
AND WILL PHASE WITH A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
LATER TODAY. THIS THEN DROPS SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT
IS A FAIRLY WEEK FLOW PATTERN OVR MOST OF THE CWA.

AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH OVER CHUKTOKA AND THE BEAUFORT SEA AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF MAINLAND ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA...WITH
MORE GRAD COOLING INTERIOR. THE STANDARD OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED LOW
VCNTY KOTZEBUE WILL PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS HAVE...AT LEAST
INTO SUN AM.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH PAC NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH
EAST OF THE DATELINE BY FRI.  THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AK LOCKED INTO
A MEAN TROUGH AND NLY FLOW ALOFT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL FOLD ACROSS NORTHERN AK FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
HIGH ARCTIC. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...BUT
WITH SOME MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG THE WEST
COAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SFC RIDGING IN THE BERING SEA AND ARCTIC. NO
MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION IN
MOST AREAS.

NORTH SLOPE...A FAIRLY CHILLY AMS REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO
MID-WEEK...WHEN THE BUILDING BERING SEA RIDGE

WEST COAST...PRES GRAD IS SLOWLY WKNG...THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW PRSTG TODAY. THE CONSOLIDATING LOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF 165W. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE AMS WILL BE DECIDEDLY COLDER THAN NORMAL...THO
MODERATION PROBABLE MID-WEEK AS THE BERING SEA RIDGE BUILDS.

INTERIOR...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE AMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TO STABILIZE A BIT FOR SAT. SOME
FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP VERY LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE FOR A WHILE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE FOR A WHILE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RT/CB APR 11