Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE NEW YEAR WITH A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND.

ALOFT...A CLOSED RIDGE ACROSS SIBERIA THAT DEVELOPED AT THE END OF
LAST WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEP CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND WHILE
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. AN
UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL GET GET STRETCHED APART
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...A 996 MB LOW NEAR ANCHORAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT INTO THE INTERIOR AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. A 971 MB LOW
150 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE A 965 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT
THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 5 TO 10 MILLIBARS SPREAD BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET WITH THE EVENTUAL DEPTH OF THIS LOW. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A FORMIDABLE STORM SYSTEM WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST.

WEST COAST...THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME SNOW THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
NORTH WHERE A FEW INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT AND MUCH
STRONGER LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTH TO NOME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS IN ZONES 212 214 215 AND 216 STARTING SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM
WATCHES ARE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 207 208 209 210 211 213 AND 217. THERE WILL BE A ENOUGH
WARM AIR THAT GETS INTO THE MIX THAT THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO
RAIN IN SPOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES OF LATE WOULD MEAN THAT ANY RAIN WILL FREEZE ON
ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. HAVE WORDED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TO MENTION THAT SOME ICE ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ALSO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

NORTH SLOPE...THE SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WILL SPREAD SOME SNOW UP ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND AND LOW ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FROM
POINT LAY SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FOR SOME LOW WIND
CHILLS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST CONTINUES. THE STRONG
WEST COAST LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW NORTH TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SECOND LOW...BUT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
ENOUGH SNOW AND WIND DOWN THE ROAD THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

INTERIOR...MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL
GET A PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS
EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST
TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL
PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS WILL SEE LITTLE SNOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
COUPLE OF PERIODS OF STRONGER CHINOOK FLOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE
THIS EVENING WITH A STRONGER CHINOOK EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LOW LIFTS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. IT LOOKS
VERY LIKELY THAT WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ217.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230.
&&

RL DEC 10