Blizzard Watch 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

466 
WWAK42 PAFG 070008
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

AKZ207-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0600Z-111110T2100Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 

* SNOW...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 45 TO 55 MPH 
  TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE 
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

AKZ210-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
INCLUDING...BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK...
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH 
  TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE 
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

AKZ211-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
INCLUDING...NOME...WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 45 TO 55 MPH 
  TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE 
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

AKZ212-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SNOW...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH 
  TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS 
  NEAR THE COAST. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND 
  HAZARDOUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY.

&&

$$

AKZ213-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE BERING STRAIT 
  COAST.

* SNOW...4 TO 7 INCHES ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST.

* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND 
  HAZARDOUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY.

&&

$$

AKZ214-071500-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
308 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND 
  HAZARDOUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY.

&&

$$

541 
WWAK42 PAFG 071449
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

AKZ213-071600-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH. 

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE HEAVY SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE
INCOMING STORM. INSTEAD...HIGH WINDS...WET RAIN AND SNOW ARE
FORECAST.

$$

AKZ207-080115-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0600Z-111110T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0021.111109T0600Z-111110T0600Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY.  

* SNOW...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT THE HEIGHT
  OF THE STORM ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ208-080115-
/X.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0021.111109T0900Z-111110T0600Z/
LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 9 PM
AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 9 PM
AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE 
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ209-080115-
/X.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0021.111109T0600Z-111110T0600Z/
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...THE ENTIRE BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY ARE
  EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED.

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...VERY POOR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 35 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS ABOVE 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE EAST 45 TO 60 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING
  AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE 
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ210-080115-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0034.111109T0300Z-111109T2100Z/
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
INCLUDING...BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK...
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
TUESDAY TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE
  HIGH COUNTRY OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.

* VISIBILITY...VERY POOR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE
  TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY VERY
HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ211-080115-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0009.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0034.111109T0300Z-111109T1800Z/
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
INCLUDING...NOME...WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ON THE
  SOUTH SLOPES OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

* VISIBILITY...VERY POOR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON
  TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY VERY
HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ212-080115-
/X.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0034.111109T0300Z-111109T1800Z/
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ON
  THE NULATTO HILLS.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
  TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY VERY
HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

AKZ214-080115-
/X.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0011.111109T0300Z-111110T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0034.111109T0300Z-111109T1500Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
549 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
TUESDAY TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR ON
  TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY VERY
HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING.

LOW NUMBER 1...
THIS SYSTEM MOVED EASTWARD FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON SATURDAY
MORNING...AND REACHED KUSKOKWIM BAY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS PRODUCED AN EXCELLENT
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND DID SO CONSISTENTLY FROM ONE MODEL
RUN TO THE NEXT OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS.

LOW NUMBER 1 BROUGHT WINTER STORM CONDITIONS TO THE YUKON DELTA
ON SATURDAY...AND CONSIDERABLE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY. THE REMAINING WEATHER WITH THIS LOW CONSISTS OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING BRIEFLY NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND PARTS OF THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE YUKON DELTA AND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY REMAIN IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE PARENT PORTION OF THIS LOW...NOW JUST
EAST OF KUSKOKWIM BAY...TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
TODAY.

THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BREAKOFF LOW WHICH IS NOW
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE WEATHER FRONT AHEAD OF THE BREAKOFF
LOW IS GOING TO ELONGATE INTO THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD PATTERN FOR SNOW IN THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. IT IS THE BASIS OF THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LEADING END
OF THIS WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THIS EVENING. PART OF IT WILL FORM A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF DEMARCATION POINT...AND THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS
ON THE COAST FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO CAPE HALKETT AROUND TO
LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

THERE WAS BRISK SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FROM ISABELL
PASS OUT TO ILIAMNA LAST NIGHT. THE WEATHER STATION AT ANTLER
CREEK...ON THE PARKS HIGHWAY NEAR DENALI PARK...RECORDED SOUTH
WINDS TO 54 MPH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE WINDS ARE NOW
DIMINISHING.

THE WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND IS ALSO
WEAKENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS NOW
OVER THE INTERIOR CAME IN FROM THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY. COOLING
ALOFT ALONG WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.........LOW NUMBER 2............

THIS WILL BE THE LAST AND STRONGEST IN A SERIES OF ACTIVE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WHICH FORMED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO STILL CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.

LOW NUMBER 2 IS A DEVELOPING STORM WHICH CAME INTO VIEW AS IT
MOVED OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS
FORECAST TO BE A 960 MILLIBAR LOW NEAR ATTU /AT THE WEST END OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS/ ON TUESDAY MORNING...AND A 945 MILLIBAR LOW
NEAR BERING STRAIT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS SHOWN THIS
SYSTEM GATHERING STRENGTH AS WELL AS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD...AT
A SPEED AROUND 50 MPH. THIS IMAGERY...SURFACE WEATHER
ANALYSES...AND THE GREAT CONSISTENCY OF THE COMPUTER WEATHER
FORECAST MODELS...ARE THE CRUCIAL INGREDIENTS THAT SUPPORT THE
FORECAST OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING ON THE NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LOW NUMBER 2 IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT CAUSED MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING ON THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST ON NOVEMBER 11 AND
12 IN 1974. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE OF ANY NOTE IS THAT THE 1974 STORM
CENTER CROSSED THE ALEUTIANS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE.
THIS NOVEMBERS STORM IS DUE TO CROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AT ITS
WEST END ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS NOVEMBERS STORM IS FORECAST TO
REACH BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 1974 STORM ALSO ENDED
UP AT BERING STRAIT. IN A FEW WORDS...THE ORIGINS AND PATHS OF
THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...BUT THEIR DESTINATIONS ARE
THE SAME.

THE OCEAN TIDES ALONG THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS WEEK ARE AT
AVERAGE LEVELS. THE OCEAN TIDES AT THE TIME OF THE 1974 STORM WERE
AT MOST A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE THIS YEARS. HENCE...THIS IS A MINOR
FACTOR. IN THE 1974 STORM...THE WIND DRIVEN RISE IN SEA LEVEL WAS
CLOSE TO 10 FEET.

IN THE 1974 STORM THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SEA ICE IN NORTON
SOUND. THE SOUTHEAST CHUKCHI SEA...FROM BERING STRAIT UP TO
BARROW INCLUDING KOTZEBUE SOUND...HAD EXTENSIVE ICE COVER DURING
THE 1974 STORM. THIS YEAR THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHORE ICE
IN EASTERN NORTON SOUND. ON THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST THERE IS ONLY A
NARROW STRETCH OF ICE...LESS THAN 10 MILES WIDE...FROM BERING
STRAIT TO POINT HOPE. KOTZEBUE SOUND IS 50 TO 70 PERCENT ICE
COVERED. ALL OF THIS MEANS IS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SHORE
ICE TO PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION TO THE COAST.

THE COASTAL FLOODING IN THE 1974 STORM BEGAN AT MID DAY IN NORTON
SOUND...AND TOWARD EVENING IN KOTZEBUE SOUND. IF LOW NUMBER 2
FOLLOWS THE SCRIPT OF THE FORECAST MODELS...THE COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THIS YEARS STORM WOULD BEGIN IN NORTON SOUND ON TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM BERING STRAIT TO
POINT HOPE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHARP CHANGE IN THE
WIND OVER NORTON SOUND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE
OUTCOME ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWS THIS FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING ON THE YUKON DELTA AND IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LOW NUMBER 2 IS GOING TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM.

THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 4 AM AKST THIS MORNING
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BREAKOFF LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THERE ARE SPIRAL
CLUSTERS OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE WEAKENING PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF KUSKOKWIM BAY. THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SET IN BANDS IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM POINT HOPE DOWN PAST DALL POINT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4 /TUESDAY NOVEMBER 8 AND
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 9/...

STORM AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM DALL POINT TO
POINT HOPE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING ON THE YUKON DELTA UP TO
BERING STRAIT...AND FROM BERING STRAIT UP TO POINT HOPE STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

TF NOV 11