Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 16 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
EVEN THE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS ARE FALLING IN LINE WITH A COMMON AND
PLAUSIBLE RESULT FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO CANADA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
BERING SEA STORM TREKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM IS BRINGING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OT THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE ONLY WARNING CURRENTLY OUT IS A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR ZONE 155 ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP TOO MUCH AND
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...OVERALL MILE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT IS REPLACED BY A
WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE STORM TRACK WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THIS RIDGE BRINGING SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 179 180.
         STORM 176.
         HURRICANE FORCE 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

FEB 11