Storm Warning 184, NWS Anchorage, AK

746 
FZAK62 PAFC 091239 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 947 MB LOW NEAR 65N 176W WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA TODAY TO
THE CHUKCHI SEA. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 55N 172W THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 TO 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 TO 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27
TO 31 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 TO 23 FT EXCEPT 28 FT N OF 58N. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT EXCEPT 32 FT N OF 58N IN THE
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

529 
FZAK62 PAFC 100036
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATE INLAND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A 985 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 47N 179W AND MOVES TO 58N 166W AT 957
MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
30 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24
FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

042 
FZAK62 PAFC 101244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 41N 173E INTENSIFIES TO 957 MB FRI AFTERNOON AS IT
MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 164W. A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING FRI AFTERNOON REACHES THE EASTERN BERING FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 
19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE IS RESULTING IN A MAJOR
STORM OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. OUT EAST...A SHARP TROF HAS HELPED
TO DEVELOP A POTENT SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROF AXIS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE REAL STORY IS THE INTENSIFYING MAJOR STORM IN THE WESTERN BERING.
ALL INDICATIONS TODAY ON SATELLITE AND FROM THE FEW OBSERVATIONS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE BERING SEA ARE THAT THIS STORM IS AS
ADVERTISED...A MAJOR STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OUT EAST...THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL ON THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE POSITION OF THIS
BAND AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS DEPICT.
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDE MORE SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOOK A BIT LONGER TO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUND...DELAYING OUR BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS SEVERAL
HOURS.

WHILE THE INITIALIZATION IS POOR...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MAJOR FEATURES. THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS THE SHORT TERM AND THE WARNINGS/IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BERING LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE SNOW AND WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THE EAST IS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROF OUT WEST AS IT CROSSES THE
ALASKA RANGE AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OCCLUDED
BY THIS TIME. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS HUGE SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SNOW
UP COOK INLET.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS STORMS...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW BUT THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF WHERE OR WHEN THAT WOULD
BE. SO FOR NOW...OUR FORECAST WILL MENTION ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUILDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BACK TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...
ALL THE ATTENTION SHOULD BE OUT WEST WHERE A 945 MB LOW RAPIDLY MOVES
TOWARD THE CHUKCHI SEA. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS
STORM WILL PLAY OUT IN FAIRBANKS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...STILL WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THIS IS A MAJOR STORM BRINGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
AND WAVES APPROACHING 40 FEET TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE BERING SEA.

CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE DELTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE AND SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. FEELING THAT
THERE IS STILL A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SO ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO
60 MPH. ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS NOT FULLY CRUSTED
OVER WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WINDS INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WARMER AIR FLOWING OFF
THE OPEN WATER WILL FINALLY PUSH TEMPERATURES OVER FREEZING ENDING
THE THREAT FOR THE BLIZZARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT DIMINISH
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY MORNING.

BRISTOL BAY WILL MOSTLY ESCAPE THIS STORM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT NEARLY THE IMPACT THAT
AREAS NORTH WILL SEE.

THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA ARE SEEING THE WORST OF IT RIGHT NOW.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE VERIFYING AS THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MARCH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE BERING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEXT LOW...ONLY PROGGED TO BE AT APPROX
985 MB WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATER IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING TIME FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IMPACTED BY THE MAJOR
STORM TO ASSESS ANY DAMAGE AND BEGIN THE CLEANUP PROCESS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...155 195
         BLIZZARD WARNING...131 155
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...180 185 412
         STORM WARNING...170 411 413 414
         GALE WARNING...120 127 128 129 130 132 150 155 160 165 171
                        172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 11