Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TWO MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE FIRST
IS A TROUGH NEAR CHIGNIK WHICH TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SAT.  THE SECOND
FEATURE IS A POWERFUL SUMMER STORM JUST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING NUNIVAK
ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WEST OF 152W WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH EXCEPTION OF WESTERN GULF.  LIGHT WINDS OVER MAINLAND ZONES BUT
STRONG SOUTH TO EAST SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AS STORM MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT.  WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD.

SOUTHWEST...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AND
PARTIAL SUN ON FRI.  EXPECT BERING SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AREA FRI
EVENING...CLOUDY WITH RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHCENTRAL...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUN BREAKS. MODEST CONVECTION IN THE COPPER RIVER AND SUSITNA BASINS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY SUN ON FRI WITH SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BERING STORM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE INTO COOK INLET SOME TIME LATE SAT MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL BE HAVE TO DEAL WITH REMNANT OF BERING
STORM WHICH MOVES ONSHORE NEAR HOOPER BAY SAT NIGHT BUT IS SLOW TO
DISSIPATE.  UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MOST LAND ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS IN THE NORTHERN
BERING ON SUN NIGHT AND THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD SO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
IN BERING WITH RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 176 175 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JUL 11