Small Craft Advisory 95, NWS Anchorage, AK

899 
FZAK52 PAFC 031253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM WEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THU NIGHT AT 998 MB AND THEN TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM
THE SOUTH THU NIGHT AND TO THE AKPEN BY SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
215 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WELL TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC. CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING BUILDS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A LOW NORTH
OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
DATELINE.

.AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA HAS BEEN BRINGING STEADY SNOW TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHILE ANCHORAGE REMAINS
DOWNSLOPED. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND AT MIDLEVELS FOR
STEADY SNOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RNAGE IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS
MORNING. FURTHER WEST A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BERING
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES AWAY INTO THE BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN CAPTURING
THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR THE SNOW AND DOWNSLOPING.
THE NAM WAS USED OVER THE EAST DOMAIN TO BETTER CAPTURE THESE
FEATURES BUT THERE IS STILL POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE AMOUNT
OF DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL OCCUR OVER ANCHORAGE OVER THE NEXT DAY. OUT
WEST THE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND CAPTURING
THE PATH OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STEADY SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF.
STEADY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INLAND TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AND INLAND THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EASTWARD... DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THIS
SYSTEM AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO GRAUDALLY
WEAKEN TOMORROW AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INLAND.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW AND WEAKENING
WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN JAN 11