Small Craft Advisory 928, NWS Anchorage, AK

333 
FZAK51 PAFC 230024
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AT 985 MB THU NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. A 970 MB
LOW 315 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 185 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 981 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
20 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.  
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...GALE WARNING  TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING
SHOWS A NEW LONG-WAVE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE BERING
SEA THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...THE
MAJOR STORM WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE MAINLAND YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HELPED TO FLATTEN OUT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER. A MAJOR STORM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL HELP KICK THIS RIDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. IN THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PATTERN CHANGE A RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC AHEAD OF A
TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF ASIA. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE THE
LONG-WAVE PATTERN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE BERING AND A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE.

AS FOR ONGOING WEATHER THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S
STORM ARE HEADING INLAND THROUGH THE INTERIOR TO THE YUKON. CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS
IS COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALSO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TREND DOWNWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A STRONG LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. IT IS TRACKING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO CURVE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF IS VERIFYING BEST WITH THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AND SHOWS THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION. ALL MODELS DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE MAIN LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS BACK THIS LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY EVENING
WHILE THE NAM/GFS TRACK IT INLAND EAST OF CORDOVA. CLIMATOLOGY
SUPPORTS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUND.

ECMWF IS ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF A LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL STICK
WITH INHERITED FORECAST FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES CAUSING GAP
WINDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION.
MOISTURE WILL OVER-RUN SOUTHCENTRAL FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK AS IT REACHES THE
NORTH GULF COAST IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE
WILL SET UP. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALL OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE GAP WINDS
NEAR WHITTIER AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF WIND AND INTENSITY
OF SNOW...SO WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT NO MATTER WHICH OF THE LOW TRACKS IS CORRECT...SO PLAN TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. IF THE LOW DOES MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS IS HIGHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE
WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF COASTAL WATERS AND BEGINNING TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AS THIS AIR FILTERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

WITH THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
LIKELY TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COLDER TO DROP DOWN ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SETTLE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL NEXT WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AS AN ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WITH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA RIGHT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY. AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS DOWN ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA
PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE WEAK...SO DON'T EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY STRONG.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ARCTIC LOW WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA...SO THE ANCHORAGE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME IMPACTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THESE STORMS PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 125 131.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 155 170 172 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11