Small Craft Advisory 906, NWS Anchorage, AK

096 
FZAK51 PAFC 140702 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1002 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

UPDATED ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 40 NM EAST 
OF KODIAK CITY WED MORNING AT 1000 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE 
SOUTHERN GULF LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1002 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 30 KT S OF KALGIN
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

917 
FZAK51 PAFC 141230
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 994 MB LOW NEAR AKHIOK WILL MOVE TO AROUND 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A STRONG FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT WEST AND SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT.  SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...WINDS BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1245 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HURRICANE FORCE LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT AND IS BEGINNING TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THIS
IS HELPING TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THE FRONT
IS ALSO ELONGATING AND WEAKENING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE.
HEADING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM TO AFFECT THE ALASKA REGION IS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 180 KT
JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH LOW WHILE THE NAM
IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. WILL GO RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE CLOSE TO THE
GFS/EKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS. DIFFERENCES REMAIN EARLY ON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SINGLE
LOW SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES THE MAIN
LOW CENTER. IN CASES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKE THIS IT IS
COMMON TO SEE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT SO BELIEVE THAT IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THIS MODEL DIFFERENCE EARLY ON ALL MODELS
COMMON INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH BY 42
HOURS...SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AS FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BACKS TOWARD THE NORTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WEDNESDAY TAKING THE LOW WITH IT. KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
GULF COAST WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP AND WINDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH MEANS
PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH TO
EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH MAY WARM JUST ENOUGH TO MIX WITH
RAIN BRIEFLY.

MEANWHILE THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL EXIT TO
THE WESTERN BERING WHILE THE NEW LOW OR LOWS APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE WILL BE ONE LOW
OR TWO AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...
EXPECT THE END RESULT TO BE A VERY STRONG LOW BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 940S. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WITH STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING AT
A PRETTY GOOD CLIP SO THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD NOT LAST FOR MORE
THAN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT WILL HAVE OCCLUDED BY THE TIME
IT REACHES SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
CREATES POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WILL WAIT ONE MORE
MODEL CYCLE AND IF THINGS DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY WILL LIKELY
ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. WITH A SOUTHERLY JET ALOFT THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BUT THERE IS STILL LOTS OF TIME
TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTION OF
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UP TO NEAR THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER. A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER JET
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND UP THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE AND FAST MOVING PATTERN.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WHICH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS SET-UP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...155.
         STORM WARNING...150 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 171.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11