Small Craft Advisory 895, NWS Anchorage, AK

674 
FZAK52 PAFC 081202
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 40 NM NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO 90 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOME LATE THU NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 993 MB THEN INTO THE CHUKCHI 
SEA BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 975 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 270 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA BY LATE FRI NIGHT
AND DEEPEN TO 961 MB. A 959 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 340 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS OUT
OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHER BERING SEA IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HAS BECOME
THE STRONGER FEATURE. THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER KAMCHATKA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE JET STREAM BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IN THE
WEEKEND.
THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST WHILE A NEW LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KAMCHATKA WHICH WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST BERING SEA. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR SPINNING UP
STRONG LOWS THAT FOLLOW THIS TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE BERING SEA.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW ON THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
HANDLING ALL THE MAIN FEATURES. BERING SEA AREA IS ACTUALLY DOING
QUITE WELL. THE AREA OF BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST WHERE THE TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING. THIS DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE SEEN WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS COULD BE INDICATIVE
OF THE LOW BEING STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SO
FAR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WINDS IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
THROUGH PASSES IN THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE DOWNSLOPING OVER THE ANCHORAGE AND
MATSU AREAS AND BRING IN MORE STEADY SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PORTAGE AREA SO RAIN WILL MIX
IN WITH THE SNOW AND END THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY.
THE PATTERN REMAINS GOOD TO GET ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER
SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD. THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE BERING WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE MAINLAND KEEPING A
SIMILAR STORM TRACK IN PLACE. LARGE LOWS IN THE BERING SEA WITH
FRONTS/TRIPLE POINT LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND WILL BE
THE PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 125.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 172 175 176 179 185.
         STORM 120. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11