Small Craft Advisory 883, NWS Anchorage, AK

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 031301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY SUN MORNING
AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPS
SUN MORNING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS AND THEN DISSIPATES.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN
ARM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS 
50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF UP TOWARD THE ALCAN BORDER AND LOW
EXTENDING OUT OF THE ARCTIC INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAM RUNNING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THEN CURVING EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. AS EXPECTED BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE AMPLIFYING WITH THE
RIDGE BECOMING MORE NARROW AND PUSHING NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES STRONGER AND DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS AMPLIFICATION
WILL CAUSE THE JET STREAM TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATED
AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THE MODELS STRUGGLING
THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A COMMON AND CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH THE
LARGE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA. OTHER MAJOR FEATURES LOOS TO
BE HANDLED WELL ALSO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE THAT WILL MAKE AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST IS ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. AT THAT TIME THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE FASTER IN BRINGING THROUGH
THE COLD AIR WHILE THE GFS DELAYS IT SOME. THIS IS NOT A HUGE
DIFFERENCE BUT IT WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY OR THE CHANGE NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BIG WARM UP IS RUNNING ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
SURGE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL. WHAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS
THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS IN TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND ANCHORAGE THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW IN
THOSE AREAS WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN MANY
PLACES. WINDS IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY WILL ALSO BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL STILL BE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA TOMORROW
EARLY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE THAT GOES THROUGH BEFORE
THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST DATA SHOWS
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IN ANCHORAGE IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS WINDS REMAINING
NORTHEAST IN TOWN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE WATCHED AS IT COULD DEVELOP
INTO A TRAVEL HAZARD IN ANCHORAGE AND INTO THE MATSU VALLEY.

THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF VALDEZ. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TEMPERATURES THERE COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING MOSTLY SNOW OR REMAINING SNOW LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IF IT DOES REMAIN SNOW IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EVEN FOR VALDEZ STANDARDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD AIR WILL WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN SWEEP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LESS SIGNIFICANT WARM UP COULD OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101. WINTER STORM WATCH 145.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180.
         STORM 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11