Small Craft Advisory 877, NWS Anchorage, AK

933 
FZAK52 PAFC 020023
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 335 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND THEN DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA
WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 976 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN TO
75 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL AT 962 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE STRONG RIDGE IS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE KAMCHATKA AREA WITH STIFF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM
IS RUNNING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. IT THEN BENDS
NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN
TO THE ALCAN BORDER IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE POSITIONING OF THE
JET IS FAVORABLE FOR A NUMBER OF IMPORTANT FEATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM THE JET IS KEEPING THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF STRONG
AND WELL AS DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR ADAK.
THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ON SHORE IN BRISTOL BAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE HANDLING THE OVERALL SITUATION WELL
BUT THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE
OVERALL CHOICE IN BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST AS IT SEEM TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THE GFS IS THE WAY IT IS HANDLING A TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR ADAK. THE NAM AND ECMWF LOOK TO
HAVE A BETTER SOLUTION WITH THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE FORECAST WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD: SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME
BREEZY AREAS. EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE THINGS ARE MUCH MORE COMPLEX.
TO START WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
COULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS TO LINGER. RELATED TO THIS
STALLING FRONT IS THE FACT THE WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THE AFTERNOON CAUSING DOWNSLOPING TO CONTINUE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AREAS
ALONG THE CHUGACH RANGE HAVE BEEN SNOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE
REACHED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
NEXT BIG QUESTION MARK EXTENDS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM COOK INLET THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
THE RAIN AND SNOW LINE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THIS AREA. THE NAM MODEL
DOES SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN COOK INLET DURING THIS TIME
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN AN
INTERESTING MIX OF WINDS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATSU REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM BUT THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN LOWER COOK INLET AND
POSSIBLY EAST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MATSU VALLEYS. THIS BRINGS IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL BE AT
RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW BELOW FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH
ABOVE FREEZING AIR RIDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER WRENCH IN THE WORKS IN THE DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS COULD
CAUSE A GOOD AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO PRECIPITATE OUT AS SNOW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THINGS GET A BIT MORE CLEAR INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IN FULL FORCE
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS TALKEETNA. WHILE THERE WILL BE A MELTDOWN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATSU AREAS COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY TURNING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 131.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 141.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 1320 138 150 155 170 172 175 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11