Small Craft Advisory 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

472 
FZAK51 PAFC 070348 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

UPDATE TO ZONES 125 AND 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET WILL DRIFT NEAR WHITTIER AT
994 MB MON MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTH OF AKHIOK AT 1003 MB MON
AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK TO AROUND 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON 
ISLAND AT 1000 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
640 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING TO W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO W 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO NW 40
KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

708 
FZAK51 PAFC 071247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES INLAND BY MIDDAY. A 996
MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 1012 MB TUE
NIGHT 100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

268 
FZAK51 PAFC 071757 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
850 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

UPDATED 138 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES INLAND BY MIDDAY. A 996
MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 1012 MB TUE
NIGHT 100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
850 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
850 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
850 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS...A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AOR...WITH A
130 KT JET STREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF AK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AMPLIFYING THE SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IN THAT AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS
PUSHED ASHORE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH THE STEADY SNOW EXPERIENCED
EARLY THIS MORNING LARGELY HAVING TAPERED OFF. LIGHT SNOW FALLS
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AS A SURFACE LOW SLIPS EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN COOK
INLET. THOUGH THE FEATURE IS WEAKENING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH A FRESH INFUSION OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT ARE
PRODUCING A SOLID ZONE OF GALES ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND AKPEN
WITH THIS AREA LOOKING TO REINFORCE THE ONGOING STRONG WINDS IN THE
GULF OF AK AND ADJACENT MAINLAND COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER WEST...A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY DEEPENING SOUTH OF ATKA
ROTATING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS GENERALLY CAPTURE THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE SIMILARLY. IN THE
EAST...MODELS SHOW THE RESIDUAL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVING ACROSS
COOK INLET OVERNIGHT AND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY MORNING.
LOCAL EFFECT WINDS ARE DEPICTED SATISFACTORILY BY THE NAM...HOWEVER
THE QPF FIELD AND SCOPE MAY BE A TAD UNDERDONE. 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ALOFT 8 TO 11
DEGREES CELSIUS AS EVIDENCED BY UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT KING SALMON AND
KODIAK. THIS INSTABILITY WHEN AIDED BY SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD YIELD
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY LOW LOOKS
TO PROVIDE SOME OF THIS INITIAL LIFT BY THIS EVENING...AND BELIEVE
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONTINUED QPF TREND ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA DIPS DOWN TO THE RESIDUAL LOW THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIFTING NEAR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW ENERGY FROM THE LOW BRUSHING THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN TRACKING TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY MORNING. TENDED TO
PREFER THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT THAT JUNCTURE.

IN THE WEST...THE MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW
NEAR ATKA SKIMMING THE CHAIN OVERNIGHT AND EJECTING INTO THE GULF OF
AK BY MONDAY NIGHT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MONSTER LOW THAT RAPIDLY
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKING TO NEAR ATTU EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A BETTER CONSISTENCY ON LOW
CENTRAL PRESSURE...THOUGH THE GFS POSITION IS REASONABLE.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WIND/WAVE IMPACTS THROUGH THE BERING/CHAIN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE RE-DEVELOPING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. EXPECTING
THE SHOWERS TO GIVE WAY TO A STEADY SNOW LATER THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BRISTOL BAY LOW AND REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOWER-LVL COLD-ADVECTION. THERE IS MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND IT'S GENERAL DURATION THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH INTENSITY QUESTIONS PERSIST CONCURRENT WITH MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. OMEGA VALUES NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AS WITH THE SNOW EVENT EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO
BELIEVE THE OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WEAKENS LATE MONDAY AND THE INCREASING
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO HELP DRY THINGS OUT AS WELL. THE
COLD-ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER THE GULF...COASTAL WATERS AND GAPS THROUGH TUESDAY. BLOWING SNOW
MAY ALSO BECOME A CONSIDERATION ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE
VALLEY IN THE EVENTUAL SQUEEZED WESTERLY FLOW.

SOUTHWEST...
SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS WEAK
RIDGING POKES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES
WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE RESIDUAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER MONDAY/TUESDAY
BEFORE THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF THE BERING SYSTEM NEAR THE AREA
MID-WEEK. COASTAL AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR SOUTHWEST-WEST SURGE GENERATED BY THE STORM
LATER THIS WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CHAIN AND
AKPEN WITH THE COMPACT LOW EJECTING TO THE GULF. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
THE MONSTER LOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGES FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...AS IS THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ZONE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN BERING THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST SWELL TO ACCOMPANY THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS AGREE ON SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE MONSTER
BERING SEA LOW ADVANCING TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK LATE WEEK/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...187 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE STORM...175 176 411
         STORM...172 412
         GALE...120 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM NOV 11