Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Anchorage, AK

708 
FZAK51 PAFC 300045
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF THOUGH SUN
AFTERNOON THEN MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A 997
MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY SUN
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E WIND 35 KT SOUTH AND WEST OF CAPE
CLEARE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 40 KT SOUTH OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SERIES OF LOWS MOVING FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS RUNS YESTERDAY FOR THE SATURDAY FORECAST ARE
NOW RESOLVED.  PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE EC/NAM SOLUTION.  TODAY
THE GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.  DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO SHOW BY LATE SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING TO BRISTOL BAY.
THE EC AND GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WHEREAS THE NAM FAILS TO PICK
UP THIS LOW.  HPC WENT WITH THE GFS FROM DAY 4 TO 6.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD.  AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA.  THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM
CURVES NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE BERING STRAIT.
AT THE SURFACE A SERIES OF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK FROM SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS TO BRISTOL BAY BETWEEN TODAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WIND AND SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH/END TONIGHT AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. WINDS
AND RAIN/SNOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES NORTH
REACHING BRISTOL BAY BY LATE SATURDAY.  EXPECT ONLY A SHORT BREAK AS
THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY REACHING BRISTOL BAY LATE
SUNDAY.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR INTERIOR ZONES. THE DECAYING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND TONIGHT AND TO SOUTHERN COOK INLET EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECOND FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SAME AREAS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A THIRD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ANS SNOW OVER
KODIAK ISLAND...COOK INLET AND LIKELY PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS CHANNELED BY TERRAIN WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AND INCREASE SUNDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS TEND TO STOP TRACKING LOWS INTO THE EASTERN BERING AFTER
TUESDAY.  THE WEATHER TREND WILL BE COOLER AND DRYER FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND MILD AND DAMP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL.  EXPECT FREQUENT RAIN AND
SNOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WEAKENING FRONTS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
SOUTH. SOME SNOW MAY MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DIEING FRONTS.  CHANNELED WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 185 351 352 411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JAN 11