Small Craft Advisory 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

766 
FZAK51 PAFC 190248 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
645 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 964 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 50 NM EAST 
OF KODIAK AT 969 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 65 KT BECOMING 
SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
645 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT 
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 65 KT...DIMINISHING TO SE 35 KT E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING 
E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT...SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT EXCEPT 9 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

335 
FZAK51 PAFC 191203
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 975 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
INCREASING TO 65 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 65 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 28 FT
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
65 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 60
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 65 KT...DIMINISHING TO SE 35 KT E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...SEAS 18 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE
WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS WHICH
BRINGS THE STRONG LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
RE-CURVES BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY
SEEMS TO STEM FROM THE HANDLING OF A SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE JET STREAM AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGE GULF LOW AT
THE START OF THE WEEK. THE EC KEEPS TWO DISTINCT LOW CENTERS...WHILE
THE GFS TRIES TO COMBINE THE ENERGY INTO A SINGLE STRONG CENTER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE EC PHILOSOPHY OF
TWO LOW CENTERS....BUT HAS TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES DIFFERENT THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM COMMONLY STRUGGLES WITH FAST-MOVING
FEATURES SUCH AS THIS SECONDARY LOW...AND WILL BE DISCARDED FOR THE
MORNING FORECAST. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH NEARBY OFFICES A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS/EC WAS CHOSEN TO ALLOW MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY FOR
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
MAINLAND ALASKA. A 180 KT JET OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
DESCENDING INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND HELPING INFUSE ENERGY
INTO A ROBUST LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LOW HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED TO AROUND 969 MB AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE LOWS
THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE GENERAL FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE LOW OUT
WEST. WITH WEAK FLOW AND RECENT RAINFALL...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND ALASKA...
GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GULF COAST AS WELL AS INLAND. THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE STRONG
BERING LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES OUT OF THE ALEUTIANS AND TOWARD THE GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG STORM FORCE BARRIER JET WILL FORM
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BUT DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT INLAND AND KEEP MUCH
OF EASTERN COOK INLET REGION DRY DURING THIS STORM. WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE...BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL SEE THE BULK OF RAIN FROM THIS
STORM...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE RAIN AND
STORM-FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW WILL SLOW AS IT
NEARS KODIAK ISLAND...OPENING UP INTO A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CREATE A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING THAT WILL USHER DOWN SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FROM MIDWEEK ON MOST OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE LARGE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW THAT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAINLAND
IN A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE BERING SEA REGION WILL SEE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH COOL AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120 138 150 155 170 172
         GALE 125 130 132 140 160 165 171 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 11