Small Craft Advisory 665, NWS Anchorage, AK

302 
FZAK51 PAFC 162320
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST 
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH 48 HRS(4AM SAT) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SOMEWHAT
REASONABLE. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS DUE IN PART
TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET...WHICH
TENDS TO LEAD TO INCONSISTENT MODEL TRENDS. SO FOR NOW...WILL BLEND
TOWARD THE NAM THROUGH ABOUT 48 HRS THE BLEND TOWARD JUNEAU GRIDS IN
THE EAST. OUT WEST...NAM BLEND THROUGH ABOUT 48 HRS...THEN BLEND OF
00Z ECMWF.

.UPPER LEVELS...
500MB...LONG WAVE EXTENDS FOR LOW OVER THE BERING SEA TO LOW NEAR
BRISTOL BAY...THEN SE TO OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRISTOL BAY CENTER
MOVES INTO THE GULF AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS OVER THE
MAINLAND SAT. A RAPIDLY MOVING SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL
NPAC FLOW...INTENSIFIES WITH A LOW CENTER FORMING SW OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS SAT EVENING. A BROAD LOW OVER THE BERING SEA
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONG WINDS/GAP FLOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES NORTH AND
EAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX. RAIN IN GENERAL WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS AND
SE EXPOSURES TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SHOWERY FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE REGION.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND
THROUGH THE SAT AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES THE EASTERN BERING SEA. BRISK
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AK PEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
BRISTOL BAY CENTER WEAKENS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS A WEAK WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...GENERAL BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAPIDLY
MOVING WAVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BERING SHOULD EXPERIENCE
AREAS OF GUSTY SUB-GALE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS AS AS WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BROAD LOW FORMS OVER GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
WOULD EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EAST OF 155W WITH SOME SUN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME RIDGING OVER BERING SO A MIX OF PARTIAL CLEARING BUT
AREAS OF FOG AS WELL.  NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11