Small Craft Advisory 643, NWS Anchorage, AK

530 
FZAK52 PAFC 100006
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND DISSIPATES SATURDAY. A
SECOND FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SATURDAY MORNING MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E OF 160W S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF ATKA...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF ATKA...SW WIND
15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W OF ATKA...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. E OF ATKA...SW WIND 35
KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT THE
UPPER LEVELS IS GOOD THROUGH SUN. SURFACE MSLP FIELDS ARE ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SHORT TERM FORECAST
PACKAGES WILL USE THE NAM IN THE EAST AND GENERALLY THE GFS IN THE
WEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...MORNING SAT IMAGERY SHOW CUT-OFF LOW CENTER FORMING SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND. THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WEAKENS THROUGH SAT
AS A SECONDARY CUT-OFF DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA FLATTENS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SAT EVENING AND TO THE EASTERN BERING SUN. RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE MAINLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAINS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA HAS
WEAKENED ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. RIVERS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN KENAI AND NEAR COPPER LANDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY BRISK GAP
WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUN. GENERALLY LOOK FOR RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...MORE SUNSHINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAND POINT DISSIPATES.
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL OCCUR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FRONT
WILL BRING WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD CALMER WINDS TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
FRI. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WEST ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAIN TO THE DELTA FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONES 121 AND 125.
MARINE...GALES 180 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11